Target Seats
This page is divided into two sections: Target seats (which are based on the adjusted results from the electoral boundary changes), and “interesting seats” that are worth further consideration. For the target seat, the riding, the incumbent party, and the percentage margin is presented.
5 Target Seats for the BC Liberals:
1. Cariboo North (NDP) – 1.3%
2. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (NDP) – 1.8%
3. North Island (NDP) – 2.4%
4. Coquitlam-Maillardville (NDP) – 2.5%
5. Nanaimo (NDP) – 2.9%
5 Target Seats for the NDP:
1. Kamloops-North Thompson (BCL) – 2.1% NDP-supportive (due to EBC)
2. Burnaby North (BCL) – 0.5% NDP-supportive (due to EBC)
3. Maple Ridge-Mission (BCL) – 0.4% NDP-supportive (due to EBC).
4. Saanich South (BCL) – 0.2%
5. Comox Valley (BCL) – 2.6%
What happened in the 2009 election?
BC Liberal target seats:
1. Cariboo North (NDP) – 1.3% [2009: Went BC Liberal, 47.9% to 47.2%]
2. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (NDP) – 1.8% [2009: NDP hold, 47.1% to 45.7%]
3. North Island (NDP) – 2.4% [2009: NDP hold, 52.0% to 39.2%]
4. Coquitlam-Maillardville (NDP) – 2.5% [ 2009: NDP hold, 47.9% to 44.7%]
5. Nanaimo (NDP) – 2.9% [2009: NDP hold, 53.5% to 36.2%]
NDP target seats:
1. Kamloops-North Thompson (BCL) – 2.1% NDP-supportive (due to EBC) [2009: BC Liberal hold, 46.9% to 44.5%]
2. Burnaby North (BCL) – 0.5% NDP-supportive (due to EBC) [2009: BC Liberal hold, 48.2% to 45.5%]
3. Maple Ridge-Mission (BCL) – 0.4% NDP-supportive (due to EBC) [2009: BC Liberal hold, 45.7% to 45.4%]
4. Saanich South (BCL) – 0.2% [2009: NDP win, 47.1% to 45.2%]
5. Comox Valley (BCL) – 2.6% [2009: BC Liberal hold, 47.3% to 42.6%]
2013 Election Target Seats, less than 5% difference (BC Liberal):
1. Delta South (IND) – 0.1%
2. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (NDP) – 1.3%
3. Saanich South (NDP) – 1.9%
4. Burnaby-Deer Lake (NDP) – 3.1%
5. Coquitlam-Maillardville (NDP) – 3.3%
6. Cariboo North (NDP) – 3.6%
2013 Election Target Seats, less than 5% difference (NDP):
1. Maple Ridge-Mission (BCL) – 0.4%
2. Cariboo-Chilcotin (BCL) – 0.7%
3. Saanich North and the Islands (BCL) – 0.8%
4. Oak Bay-Gordon Head (BCL) – 2.2%
5. Kamloops-North Thompson (BCL) – 2.4%
6. Burnaby North (BCL) – 2.7%
7. Burnaby-Lougheed (BCL) – 3.7%
8. Vancouver-Fraserview (BCL) – 3.9%
9. Boundary-Similkameen (BCL) – 4.6%
10. Comox Valley (BCL) – 4.7%
11. Vancouver-Fairview (BCL) – 4.9%
I believe the North Island will be one of those surprise ridings – my prediction is a Liberal sweep. This can mostly be attributed to the candidate and less so with the BC Liberals. I can speak of this from experience as I spent most of my life up there and have met and followed both the Liberal candidate and Claire
Marion Wright is a former First Nations Chief who has brought together both members of the community in creating her campaign team. With the recent Treaty announcement I believe that she has a very strong chance of taking most of the First Nation vote. One of Claire’s strengths was her relationship with the First Nations who it now appears are less likely to suport her with her recent comments about IPPs.
The second point for her is her experience with children and families. She currently hold a PHD in childcare. Claire’s main point of experience was her work with the Children and Families portfolio as opposition critic. With the BC Liberals record on childcare (which I hate to say is not the greatest) she should have won some acclaim – that is not the case.
I don’t know how much affect a candidate has on the vote, I guess it depends who they are. But I see this race as a real person vs person dog race and should definitely be one that everyone watches.
Cheers,
Geoff
This is precisely why North Island is on the list – probably the most scenic electoral district in the entire province. The main population centre is Campbell river which has always been a bastion for the NDP, but the surrounding areas are BC Liberal.
And as you do point out, there is the First Nations factor, which I haven’t fully analyzed yet, but will in due course.
Do you believe Surrey-Fleetwood will be a swing seat? It appears as though it is going to be very hotly contested with an incumbant MLA having switched seats to run there (and given BC Liberal polling numbers it might suggest that the demographics would favour them).
You are missing several swing ridings. And the fact that you identify only 5 Liberal ridings as swing ridings suggests that you have already concluded that the election is over (i.e., if the Liberals lose at most 5 seats, then they are re-elected in any event).
Gordon Campbell himself is less confident than that. He has repeatedly referred to the fact that shifting less than 2000 votes in the last election would have elected the NDP to 7 more seats and made them government.
I am not saying that the NDP will necessarily win. But I think your definition of what is a swing riding is too narrow.
I’m going to be redoing the concept of this page in the future. I’ve been trying to limit it to 10 seats, but there will have to be something more comprehensive in the future. Thanks for your suggestions.
Also the BC Liberals have less swing seats just based out of the vote distribution. If you look at the vote results from the 2005 to 2009 boundary change it produces far more close NDP-held ridings than BCL ridings.
I’m interested in how Esquimalt will fair. Jane Sterk although fairly new in the leader position has increased her visibility in this predominately NDP riding, but the Libs only lost by around 2900 votes and if she siphons enough votes from the NDP she could split it three ways and who knows what will happen. This is one riding where every vote will count.
Nonsense ,up island. the NDP will get the vote out and win.. Sterk is doomed and if the swing votes can’t figure it out.. well, I guess we get for more years of a drunk at the wheel.
Liberals have consistently avoided discussion of the issues, avoided debate. They are not Liberals, of course, just a bunch of Socred Retreads.
Campbell will beat the living daylights of the civil servants, teachers and hospital workers,again. He likes to do that. Such a swell, condescending guy.
Any predictions on Coquitlam-Maillardville?
Interestingly, there has been practically no attention to this district by either the Liberals or NDP. My gut says this will stay NDP.