Ridings
Effect of 2005 to 2009 Electoral Boundary Change
Seat Projection (85 seats) using strictly data from the 2005 election and overlaying the new electoral boundaries:
BC Liberal – 48
NDP – 37
Please note the above tabulation has not taken into account any information between 2005 and 2009 other than the electoral boundary changes!
Tight Seats (16 seats, by predicted seat):
BC Liberal – 5
NDP – 11
Please observe that due to the Electoral Boundaries adjustment that some of the “incumbent” seats are ambiguous (for example – we say Vancouver-False Creek is BCL).
Definitions
“Safe” – Projected vote difference of 10% or greater.
“Probable” – Projected vote difference of 4% to 10%.
“Tight” – Projected vote difference of less than 4%.
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| Fraser Valley (17) | Incumbent | Predicted | Margin |
| Abbotsford-Mission | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Abbotsford South | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Abbotsford West | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Chilliwack | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Chilliwack-Hope | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Fort Langley-Aldergrove | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Langley | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Maple Ridge-Mission | BCL | NDP | Tight |
| Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows | NDP | NDP | Tight |
| Surrey-Cloverdale | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Surrey-Fleetwood | BCL | NDP | Tight |
| Surrey-Green Timbers | NDP | NDP | Safe |
| Surrey-Newton | NDP | NDP | Safe |
| Surrey-Panorama | NDP | BCL | Safe |
| Surrey-Tynehead | BCL | BCL | Probable |
| Surrey-Whalley | NDP | NDP | Safe |
| Surrey-White Rock | BCL | BCL | Safe |
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| Northern Interior (10) | Incumbent | Predicted | Margin |
| Cariboo-Chilcotin | NDP | NDP | Tight |
| Cariboo North | NDP | NDP | Tight |
| Nechako Lakes | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| North Coast | NDP | NDP | Safe |
| Peace River North | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Peace River South | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Prince George-Mackenzie | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Prince George-Valemount | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Skeena | NDP | NDP | Probable |
| Stikine | BCL | BCL | Tight |
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| Southern Interior (14) | Incumbent | Predicted | Margin |
| Boundary-Similkameen | NDP | BCL | Probable |
| Columbia River-Revelstoke | NDP | NDP | Safe |
| Fraser-Nicola | NDP | NDP | Probable |
| Kamloops-North Thompson | BCL | NDP | Tight |
| Kamloops-South Thompson | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Kelowna-Lake Country | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Kelowna-Mission | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Kootenay East | BCL | BCL | Probable |
| Kootenay West | NDP | NDP | Safe |
| Nelson-Creston | NDP | NDP | Safe |
| Penticton | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Shuswap | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Vernon-Monashee | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Westside-Kelowna | BCL | BCL | Safe |
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| Vancouver Island (15) | Incumbent | Predicted | Margin |
| Alberni-Pacific Rim | NDP | NDP | Safe |
| Comox Valley | BCL | BCL | Tight |
| Cowichan Valley | NDP | NDP | Probable |
| Esquimalt-Royal Roads | NDP | NDP | Safe |
| Juan de Fuca | NDP | NDP | Safe |
| Nanaimo | NDP | NDP | Tight |
| Nanaimo-North Cowichan | NDP | NDP | Safe |
| North Island | NDP | NDP | Tight |
| Oak Bay-Gordon Head | BCL | BCL | Tight |
| Parksville-Qualicum | BCL | BCL | Safe |
| Powell River-Sunshine Coast | NDP | NDP | Safe |
| Saanich North and the Islands | BCL | BCL | Probable |
| Saanich South | NDP | BCL | Tight |
| Victoria-Beacon Hill | NDP | NDP | Safe |
| Victoria-Swan Lake | NDP | NDP | Safe |