There is a full collection of party platforms from the 2001 and 2005 provincial elections, available here.

Posted by Sacha Peter for BC Election 2009. | Permalink | No comment | Filed under category NDP.

Ipsos’ press release can be found here (PDF on Ipsos’ site, Local Copy). The source document they attached is here - (Local PDF copy).

Of particular note:

1. The “Decided voters” base was 701 people surveyed; so 100 (12.5%) were undecided.
2. There was some weighting performed on smaller sample sizes - for example, while the Lower Mainland had 443 surveyed, it counted for 401 people; while 96 people on the Island were weighted as if 124 were surveyed. I am not concerned with the downsampling, but the upsampling of the Island residents would result in more statistical error.

I really appreciate the granularity of the data that Ipsos provides; it is a lot better than Angus Reid.

Posted by Sacha Peter for BC Election 2009. | Permalink | No comment | Filed under category Polls.

Here is a link to a Vancouver Sun article describing the poll - I could not locate the source document (Update, November 19 - Source documents found here). 800 British Columbians were surveyed between November 5 to November 12. I have updated the charts in the Polls page. I would be curious to see the regional splits in the Ipsos poll.

Also, Vaughn Palmer’s commentary is fairly insightful, so I will not repeat his comments here.

His two last paragraphs (said humorously) suggested “averaging the two” to lead to a BC Liberal 42%, NDP 40% result is statistically feasible in a meta-analysis, providing that the respective sample spaces of both surveys were randomized and there was no/little correlation between the two samples (e.g. duplicate people were not sampled). Of course, if BJ’s suspicions are correct, the Angus Reid survey’s sample space is biased and such a meta-analysis cannot yield accurate results.

For both political parties, they will likely be conducting their own private surveys to reconcile the huge differences between the two polls.

One small sample that can easily be proven is the spread in the difference between the 2005 elections and the 2008 by-elections; in the 2005 general election, the BC Liberals had an actual vote of 45.8%, while the NDP had 41.5%. The NDP performed better in the lightly-attended by-elections than the BC Liberals did. If 44/35/16 is the projected poll, one would surmise that the Green party’s performance would be more reflective in the by-election results, which didn’t occur. One inference is that the Green party vote is highly inflated in polling, but this is hardly news.

Posted by Sacha Peter for BC Election 2009. | Permalink | No comment | Filed under category Polls.

The primary difference between the two polls is that the NDP have gained a slight amount of extra support in the seat-rich GVRD region.

The one positive point in the survey for the BC Liberals’ was a minor improvement for Gordon Campbell’s numbers in some of the qualities and characteristics that is polled of the party leaders.

The survey results are certainly not the best for the BC Liberals, although there are six months left until election day. An examination of the polling leading up to the 2005 election showed a similar trend, so the NDP cannot rest on their laurels at this point.

It is unknown how much of this result is as a result of “by-election momentum” (if such can exist from a record-low voter turnout election), or how much of this was induced by Gregor Robertson’s Vision Vancouver victory. My own suspicion would suggest that nothing has changed provincially over the past two months - the NDP and BC Liberals are likely neck and neck - each party with its respective support for different reasons.

It is clear one big issue will be the carbon tax, but how the NDP attempt to leverage this without costing themselves their own base will be an interesting question - something that will inevitably play out in upcoming months.

Attached are two charts - the 2009 polls up to date, and the 2005 and 2009 polls that show polling information counted by days to the election.

Posted by Sacha Peter for BC Election 2009. | Permalink | 7 comments | Filed under category Polls.

Vancouver-Burrard:
Herbert (NDP) 7,002 - 50.7% - Elected
Griffiths (BCL) 5,100 - 36.9%
Read (GRN) 742 - 5.3%
McLeod (BCC) 590 - 4.3%
Emery, M (BCM) 379 - 2.7%
Estimated Turnout: 23.5%

Vancouver-Fairview:
McGinn (NDP) 5,754 - 47.0% - Elected
MacDiarmid (BCL) 4,933 - 40.3%
Sterk (GRN) 900 - 7.4%
Hanni (BCC) 496 - 4.1%
Emery, J (BCM) 166 - 1.4%
Estimated Turnout: 27.3%

Predictions Made and Commentary
NDP to take Vancouver-Burrard - Successful - This really wasn’t in question. Herbert will easily take Vancouver-West End in the following 2009 election.

BC Liberals to take Vancouver-Fairview - Failed - I was surprised at the NDP’s relatively good performance in this riding, one would have thought that the BC Liberals’ candidate would have had more local credibility with her medical association. Vancouver-Fairview is right in the middle of “medical alley”, near the Cambie and 12th area. Perhaps the Canada Line construction fiasco cost the BC Liberals points locally in this area. McGinn will be in for a fight in 2009, as when the other 30% of the riding shows up to vote it won’t be nearly as positive for the NDP. Still, she can take good comfort in knowing that she did better than Gregor Robertson in 2005.

Vancouver-Burrard voter turnout 25%, Vancouver-Fairview voter turnout 30% - Successful - I’ll consider this close enough to be a successful prediction. Voter turnout was pathetically low, but this could be easily anticipated. It also tells you that the number of die-hard political junkies in each riding that will vote for anything is probably a constant number.

Posted by Sacha Peter for BC Election 2009. | Permalink | No comment | Filed under category News.

The local news out there has mainly revolved around the municipal elections, and most of the ground-level troops have been there and not provincially active. After November 15, eyes will look around the provincial domain for the upcoming May 12 election.

In Vancouver, the Vision Vancouver vote will be a good proxy for NDP support, while the NPA vote will be a good proxy for BC Liberal support in the upcoming election. There will be a lot of data that can be mined.

I am projecting that Gregor Robertson will become the next mayor of Vancouver. The existing council has accumulated too much baggage, and although Robertson has shown himself to be politically stupid with respect to not paying for two zones on Translink, this has been completely erased by the $100 million loan scandal which will seat Robertson’s victory. Robertson has caught quite a wave of good luck this election.

Provincially, things start again with the November 20th opening of the Legislature for a very brief session to enact the Premier’s economic plan that was proposed in the televised address. Presumably there will be some more visibility on the specific measures in the legislation that is to be proposed.

There are two other tidbits worthy of mention.

One is that the federal Liberal leadership convention will be held in Vancouver, with the leader to be selected on May 2, 2009. This may have the effect of siphoning away some media attention on the provincial scene for a few days leading up to the convention. Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff will be slugging away at each other at this point in a political cage match.

The second is that non-profit groups have up until Decmeber 1, 2008, to apply for some provincial funding to spread the worth with respect to the electoral reform referendum.

In the upcoming days, I will be creating riding-by-riding profiles where people can individually comment. The initial efforts will be concentrated on swing ridings.

Posted by Sacha Peter for BC Election 2009. | Permalink | No comment | Filed under category News.

The deadline to report such election expenses will be on January 27, 2009, which is 90 days after the by-election date.

I would suspect the BC Liberal candidates would be in a better position financially to go near the limit (especially Arthur Griffiths), as the BC Election Act allows corporate contributions (unlike the Canada Elections Act).

The parties, however, have a different story - at the end of 2007, the BC Liberal party had net liquid assets (loosely defined as cash and near-cash assets minus liabilities) of approximately $600,000, while the NDP’s net liquid assets of negative $510,000.

Oddly enough, however, the NDP’s balance sheet was in better shape than the BC Liberal party, as the NDP has a $1.5 million asset in the form of “Lands and Buildings” which could presumably be liquidated even in today’s real estate environment (BC Property Assessment - $1,317,000).

The BC Liberal party’s fundraising abilities, however, appear to be better than the NDP’s, so it is likely that the BC Liberals would have more to spend for this election if they chose to do so. Still, both parties are very far away from the maximum $5.5 million expenditure allowed in the 2009 general election ($1.1 million in the 60 days before the campaign period to the campaign period and $4.4 million during the campaign period) so it would not surprise me if both parties put in a minimal amount of funding in this election to save their gunpowder for the general election.

Posted by Sacha Peter for BC Election 2009. | Permalink | No comment | Filed under category By-Election.

If the Greens can’t drive their votes to the polls in a by-election, they will have exactly the same trouble in the general election.

I would suspect that the BC Conservative vote split the Green’s vote as the “right win alternative protest vote”. If this is their role in the election, then the BC Liberals have less to worry about, although seeing 4-5% of that vote bleed away to a party that ideologically is similar to the BC Liberals should be of some concern.

Spencer Herbert’s powerful result in Vancouver-Burrard is powerful, and once Elections BC has the poll-by-poll results it can be confirmed where the NDP power base is in that riding - since in 2009 the riding will be split in two. Arthur Griffiths, if he decides to run again in Vancouver-West End, will not be doing better than 37%, so David Harper will be fighting him for a nomination that will have very little chance of netting a seat in the legislature.

I was surprised at Jenn McGinn’s margin of victory, getting a slightly higher percentage than Gregor Robertson.

As somebody named BK alludes to in their comments, McGinn should not feel safe coming into the general election, although certainly she should be very happy with the result.

The story politically, however, is rightfully going to get lost with the US Presidential election, and also the upcoming municipal election. With the excessively low voter turnout seen, it is also difficult to extrapolate these results into provincial sentiment, although one easy conclusion that can be made is that the NDP are not to be discounted, unlike the polls of early last year.

Posted by Sacha Peter for BC Election 2009. | Permalink | No comment | Filed under category By-Election.