“How then to choose between a poll that puts the government comfortably ahead of the Opposition and one that has it behind?

One could simply wait for the next poll. The Mustel Group, the other longtime player on the provincial polling scene, is in the field this week, expecting to release its findings early next week.”

Both Mustel and Ipsos have not released opinion polls since June and both have been polling BC for over a decade and have their track records (unlike ARS, which has only been publicly on-line polling since August, 2008).

Mustel: (June)

Liberal - 47%
NDP - 37%
Green - 14%

Ipsos: (June)

Liberal - 47%
NDP - 33%
Green - 16%

Unlike Mustel, Ipsos provides a list of parties to choose from. That’s why with that prompting the Greens tend to be higher in Ipsos polls. But the spreads have historically been relatively close between Mustel and Ipsos.

Is the 44/35/16 poll available over the internet? I tried looking for it, but couldn’t find anything.

If Ipsos is polling 44/35/16 and ARS is polling 39/44/11, that’s obviously a huge difference and can only be reconciled by determining which polling agency is wrong (or both of them!).

The last non-ARS poll was Mustel in June and they had 47/37/14. I’d really like some other data coming in here.

As for the SK results of ARS, yup, that certainly looks like there was some sampling error there. They didn’t break down geographically their last federal poll.

CPC - 40% (53.7%)
NDP - 35% (25.6%)
Liberal - 17% (14.9%)

That 5% poll spread actually turned out to be a 28% spread a few days later.

Anyway, Global News released the results tonight of the latest Ipsos BC poll:

Liberal - 44%
NDP - 35%
Green - 16%

The 5% NDP spread in the Angus Reid poll is reversed by a 9% Liberal spread in this Ipsos poll.

That’s a 14% spread differential between Angus Reid and Ipsos. I guess my reluctance to have faith in on-line panel polls such as Angus Reid was well founded.

It’s also important to note that both Mustel and Ipsos have virtually mirrored each others results over the past decade.

What makes these results even more dangerous for the BC Liberals is that it may possibly put a seat like Vancouver-False Creek in play.

I’m not going to put a lot of stock in exit polls, nor polls by a single agency. But if Mustel/Ipsos comes up with similar results, then that will say something.

Finally, there’s some post-game analysis to be done with respect to the Vancouver results, there is more to come by months’ end with more pretty maps coming up!

For that matter, unfortunately Mustel and Ipsos haven’t released anything since June.

And here’s some anecdotal evidence why these ARS polls might be off the mark.

Yesterday, the Vancouver Sun sponsored an exit poll (in conjunction with SFU) for the Vancouver mayoral race.

That exit poll had a huge sample size for the city of Vancouver - 843 with a margin of error of 4%.

While Gregor Robertson and Vision Vancouver handily won the mayors chair/council, the exit poll had this stunning observation:

Provincial Party Preference:

Liberal - 41%
NDP - 40%
Green - 11%
Other - 8%

To top it off, voter turnout dropped in 12 polling districts on Vancouver’s westside won by Ladner, but voter turnout increased in 10 polling districts in Vancouver’s north/eastside won by Robertson.

To the point, with an 843 sample size the Liberals lead/are tied in the City of Vancouver, which has always been the NDP’s core strength within the GVRD.

Even Mustel’s last poll released in June made this observation:

“The BC Liberals continue to be most popular in Greater
Vancouver suburbs whereas the NDP tends to be strongest in the City of Vancouver.”

http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20080626.pdf

The foregoing anecdotal evidence totally contradicts the ARS poll that shows the NDP leading in the GVRD by a margin of 46% to 41%.

I guess we’ll see when Mustel and Ipsos release their next figures.