Ipsos Reid survey source and analysis

Posted November 19, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

Ipsos Reid has posted their source for the November 12 survey.

Ipsos’ press release can be found here (PDF on Ipsos’ site, Local Copy). The source document they attached is here - (Local PDF copy).

Of particular note:

1. The “Decided voters” base was 701 people surveyed; so 100 (12.5%) were undecided.
2. There was some weighting performed on smaller sample sizes - for example, while the Lower Mainland had 443 surveyed, it counted for 401 people; while 96 people on the Island were weighted as if 124 were surveyed. I am not concerned with the downsampling, but the upsampling of the Island residents would result in more statistical error.

I really appreciate the granularity of the data that Ipsos provides; it is a lot better than Angus Reid.

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Ipsos Reid shows BC Liberals up 9%

Posted November 18, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

Just one day after Angus Reid showed the NDP up 5% over the BC Liberals, Ipsos Reid’s poll shows the BC Liberals still comfortably ahead, 44% to the NDP’s 35%. The Green party polled at 16%.

Here is a link to a Vancouver Sun article describing the poll - I could not locate the source document (Update, November 19 - Source documents found here). 800 British Columbians were surveyed between November 5 to November 12. I have updated the charts in the Polls page. I would be curious to see the regional splits in the Ipsos poll.

Also, Vaughn Palmer’s commentary is fairly insightful, so I will not repeat his comments here.

His two last paragraphs (said humorously) suggested “averaging the two” to lead to a BC Liberal 42%, NDP 40% result is statistically feasible in a meta-analysis, providing that the respective sample spaces of both surveys were randomized and there was no/little correlation between the two samples (e.g. duplicate people were not sampled). Of course, if BJ’s suspicions are correct, the Angus Reid survey’s sample space is biased and such a meta-analysis cannot yield accurate results.

For both political parties, they will likely be conducting their own private surveys to reconcile the huge differences between the two polls.

One small sample that can easily be proven is the spread in the difference between the 2005 elections and the 2008 by-elections; in the 2005 general election, the BC Liberals had an actual vote of 45.8%, while the NDP had 41.5%. The NDP performed better in the lightly-attended by-elections than the BC Liberals did. If 44/35/16 is the projected poll, one would surmise that the Green party’s performance would be more reflective in the by-election results, which didn’t occur. One inference is that the Green party vote is highly inflated in polling, but this is hardly news.

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Angus Reid poll shows NDP ahead by 5%

Posted November 16, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

A poll released on November 15 (Local Copy, Angus Reid Copy) that surveyed 802 people from November 6 to November 11 show the NDP is ahead 44% to the BC Liberals’ 39%. This is consistent with their previous surveying - the previous survey showing a 3% spread (August 25, 2008) vs. the current 5% spread (November 11, 2008).

The primary difference between the two polls is that the NDP have gained a slight amount of extra support in the seat-rich GVRD region.

The one positive point in the survey for the BC Liberals’ was a minor improvement for Gordon Campbell’s numbers in some of the qualities and characteristics that is polled of the party leaders.

The survey results are certainly not the best for the BC Liberals, although there are six months left until election day. An examination of the polling leading up to the 2005 election showed a similar trend, so the NDP cannot rest on their laurels at this point.

It is unknown how much of this result is as a result of “by-election momentum” (if such can exist from a record-low voter turnout election), or how much of this was induced by Gregor Robertson’s Vision Vancouver victory. My own suspicion would suggest that nothing has changed provincially over the past two months - the NDP and BC Liberals are likely neck and neck - each party with its respective support for different reasons.

It is clear one big issue will be the carbon tax, but how the NDP attempt to leverage this without costing themselves their own base will be an interesting question - something that will inevitably play out in upcoming months.

Attached are two charts - the 2009 polls up to date, and the 2005 and 2009 polls that show polling information counted by days to the election.

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Mustel confirms no provincial polling

Posted September 9, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

Mustel confirmed that there will be no provincial polling until well after the Federal elections are over - which means to confirm the last Angus Reid poll (showing the NDP up 41% to the BC Liberals’ 38%) we will have to wait in suspense for one, and possibly two election campaigns.

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Angus Reid reports NDP is ahead

Posted August 27, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Analysis, Polls

An Angus Reid poll (Detailed PDF archive), commissioned independently, 802 sampled from August 21 to 25 was released today. It indicated the voting intentions as follows:

NDP 41%
BC Liberal 38%
Green 14%

If this result is verified by another polling source (Mustel, Ipsos, etc.), then this election battle has just been blown wide open. The only possible “taint” to these results might be sample bias from the July NDP-commissioned Angus Reid survey showing BCL/NDP at 41/40, respectively - did Angus Reid use the same sample space?

Four years ago, an August 15, 2004 Mustel poll indicated that the BC Liberals had 40% support, the NDP had 42% and the Greens had 11%. Is history repeating itself?

When looking at the detailed survey results, there are some interesting points:

Gordon Campbell’s disapproval rating is 57% - compared to 43% (using the Mustel June 19 sample). Carole James’ is 38% - compared to 28% (again, against the Mustel poll). It is not known if these results are comparable to the Mustel poll, as slight variations on how the question is asked can influence results. The approval rating results also suggest that a quarter of the province have no idea who “Carole James” is if you asked a random person on the street. Jane Sterk isn’t even on the radar.

If you divide the approval rating by the people who would vote for the party, it suggests that 32% of the BC Liberal voters do not prefer Gordon Campbell’s performance, while 39% do not like Carole James’ performance. Just note this calculation is dividing one number with large error bars with another number with large error bars, so the result is something with a grossly higher margin of error and is most certainly not statistically valid with an 802 person sample (even assuming that the sample is random!).

Healthcare, something that hasn’t been on the media spotlight lately (compared to the Environment) is the top issue for 20% of the people. The economy is second at 14%, tax relief 9%, and leadership and the environment are tied at 8%.

Most people think Gordon Campbell has a vision for British Columbia than any other attribute (including “Cares about the Environment”). The Premier is also seen as being a strong and decisive leader (relative to the other attributes). A lot more people don’t know enough about Carole James to say much about her (roughly 40%), but for those that do, indicates she “Cares about the Environment” much more.

On the bottom part of the results, under “Is honest and trustworthy”, the Premier ranked last (18% said the statement applies, 60% said the statement does not apply), while Carole James was 45% applies, 16% does not. The other major contrast is that more people in this survey thought Carole James “Understands the problems of BC Residents” compared to the Premier.

Gordon Campbell ranked third with “Can manage the provincial economy effectively” (37% said applies, 45% said does not apply), while this was Carole James’ worst attribute (17% said applies, 33% said does not apply).

Finally, in terms of the regional split of voting, the NDP and BC Liberals are neck and neck in the Lower Mainland (40% and 39%, respectively), while the NDP are far ahead on Vancouver Island (49% vs. 33%). The NDP are slightly ahead in the Southern Interior (41% to 37%), while the BC Liberals are significantly ahead in the Northern Interior (47% to 33%).

This information is somewhat contradictory to the prevailing theory that the carbon tax did damage to the government since one would expect it would have the highest electoral impact in the Northern Interior.

The other thought that comes to mind is the federal impact on provincial election results - while political hacks are well acquainted with the difference between the BC Liberal Party and the Liberal Party of Canada, most ordinary people associate the word “Liberal” to mean the same party. While this association has been traditionally positive for the BC Liberal party, as the federal campaign heats up there might be collateral damage done to the BC Liberals in the process.

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Push polling

Posted August 21, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: NDP, Polls

Langley Politics mentions the internal poll released by the NDP, relating to their Carbon Tax poll.

As I said in that previous post:

I am also wondering what other questions they asked in the survey that were cropped out - typically when such surveys are commissioned the first or last question they ask is “If there was an election held today, who would you vote for?”.

Apparently the answer was:

Lib: 41%
NDP: 40%
Green: 12%

A commenter here, BJ, has astutely said (well before Langley Politics and myself) all I would want to say on the topic, mainly:

For obvious reasons one should be careful of this poll result as it was asked after 5 leading questions. Sometimes these polls are referred to as “push polls”.

Well said, BJ.

One would wonder what the strategic or tactical outcome of such a release would be - is the NDP trying to telegraph to its supporters that “things are more competitive than you think”? Releasing information that is over a month old gives away more information about the party’s intentions than the information itself.

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Carole James and the Carbon Tax

Posted July 30, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: NDP, Polls

It has been a politically quiet week, punctuated by two major events - one being the Sea to Sky Highway being shut down for BC Day long weekend due to a rockslide. The second event is the NDP choosing one of the biggest weekends for people to get in their cars for a holiday to release a survey on the carbon tax.

Carole James and the NDP released some poll results, compiled by Angus Reid, showing public support (and lack thereof) for the carbon tax. Surveyed were 800 people between July 11 to July 13.

The snippet included with the NDP press release included:

{Carole James saying} “Gordon Campbell needs to listen to the public, scrap the gas tax and bring forward climate change solutions that work.”

Earlier today, Carole James spoke to the NDP caucus and supporters where she outlined the NDP’s plan to step up the campaign to axe the gas tax.

I find it odd that they are saying “Axe the gas tax” instead of “Axe the carbon tax”. Presumably this is because they don’t want to bleed their environmental supporters to the Green party.

Legally, there is a Motor Fuel Tax in addition to a Carbon Tax, both with separate rates. Most of the public would identify the Motor Fuel Tax as being the “gas tax”, although it would be interesting to survey people to see if they can distinguish between a “gas tax” and a “carbon tax”.

The survey had four questions.

Question 1: From what you have seen, heard or read about Premier Gordon Campbell’s carbon tax on fuel in British Columbia, do you support or oppose its implementation?

Roughly 60% of the GVRD (which presumably involves the FVRD) oppose the carbon tax, while 70% of the southern interior and 80% of the northern interior oppose it. The strong opposition was greater than the moderate opposition, while the moderate support was greater than the strong support. This and the geographical spread is not all that surprising.

The political ramification is pretty clear - the interior will likely lose BC Liberal support, especially for those voters that think the carbon tax is a sufficient “single issue” issue for them to sway their vote. Whether they’ll plug for the NDP is another question - probably the largest impact will be a loss of voters, or more third-party candidates receiving protest votes.

Question 2: With the government’s $100 climate change dividend, most British Columbians
come out ahead on the tax.

Less than 1/6th of the population supported this, especially in the northern interior.

This would suggest that the $100 climate action dividend will be long forgotten by May 2009. It also suggests that the more the government attempts to remind people that they gave a $100 cheque to offset the carbon tax, the more likely it is the public will backlash.

Question 3: It is unfair that major industrial polluters don’t have to pay the carbon tax, while ordinary consumers do.
Question 4: I trust the Government of B.C. when it says the carbon tax will be revenue neutral.

Both of these questions are horrible and the results are meaningless. Anytime you phrase a question starting with “I trust the Government…”, you know it is designed to get a desired result rather than to obtain public sentiment.

I am also wondering what other questions they asked in the survey that were cropped out - typically when such surveys are commissioned the first or last question they ask is “If there was an election held today, who would you vote for?”.

The NDP need to swing BC Liberal voters into their camp in order to have a viable shot of winning the upcoming election. The other way they have a shot is by demotivating BC Liberal supporters to the voting booth (i.e. not having 2005 BC Liberal supporters vote BC Liberal in 2009) - this is likely their strategy as I generally agree with the anonymous commenter on a previous post - there is economic inconsistency with the NDP’s message.

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Poll - Angus Reid on Carbon Taxes

Posted June 27, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

Angus Reid released a poll ended June 26, of 800 BC residents, asking questions concerning the BC Carbon tax. You can read it locally, or on Angus Reid’s website.

The first two pages of the report is a good analysis of the numbers, so I would encourage readers to do so.

What is most interesting is that people that make more than $100,000 are by far and away the largest supporters (72%) of “Putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions is a good idea.”, while least supportive (76%) of “The BC government should target major industrial producers such as the gas, oil, cement, and aluminum industries, instead of imposing a carbon tax.”

Still, the percentages are tight enough such that I would not be making sweeping conclusions out of this survey.

Finally, 60% of BC is convinced global warming is occurring, 32% is “may be occurring, but not fully convinced” and 6% is not happening at all. The 60% magnitude is very likely why this is such a high profile issue in the first place.

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