Polling of 2009 vs. 2005 elections

Posted May 10, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

The last polls have been released (unless if there are any other polling companies releasing on May 11), but we have the following:

2009 Polls

 
 
2005 Polls

Unfortunately I do not have sample sizes associated with the following polls:

 
Actual results, 2005 election: BCL 45.8%, NDP 41.5%, GRN 9.2%

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Innovative Research Group poll

Posted May 10, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

Innovative Research Group did a poll, but the source data is not available, and it is frustrating because two individual surveys were quoted. One was an online survey of 753 panelists conducted from March 20 to April 15, with a second major survey of 610 panelists conducted from May 6 to May 9.

The Globe and Mail article quoted (Innovative Research Link, Local Copy) states the following voter intention:

BC Liberal 46%
NDP 37%
Green 11%

I will assume these numbers are going to be Innovative Research’s prediction for the election.

There is not much else in the Globe and Mail article that isn’t revealed from other polls – Green support is the softest, for example.

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Ipsos-Reid source available

Posted May 9, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

I have posted the source document for the last Ipsos Reid poll on the previous post. Out of the 800 person survey there were 90 undecideds.

Of particular interest was the ones voting for STV – 52% said they will support the existing system and 33% will support STV, while the remainder were undecided. Recent polling highly suggests that the referendum is set for failure, by a significant margin.

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Ipsos-Reid: BCL 47, NDP 39

Posted May 8, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

According to the Vancouver Sun, an Ipsos-Reid poll, 800 people surveyed from May 4 to May 7, has the following voter intention:

BC Liberal 47%
NDP 39%
Green 10%

Source documents: (Ipsos Reid, Local Copy)

The only other colour the article provides is that 15% of BC Liberal voters are considering changing their mind, 24% of NDP voters are, and 32% of Greens are.

This leaves the following election day polls:

May 7, 2009 – Ipsos-Reid – BC Libs 47, NDP 39, Green 10
May 6, 2009 – Angus Reid Strategies – BC Libs 44, NDP 42, Green 10
May 6, 2009 – Mustel – BC Libs 47, NDP 38, Green 12
May 2, 2009 – Environics – BC Libs 47, NDP 36, Green 13

Angus Reid Strategies currently is the outlier. Who will be correct?

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Harris-Decima Poll, April 27 to May 2

Posted May 8, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

Lots of last second polls being released on the BC Election. Here is yet another:

The Canadian Press commissioned Harris-Decima to do a poll, and it was a 1000 person sample, done from April 27 to May 2. Although details are not available, they did write an article on the poll results. The only specific item I could find with respect to voter intention was the following paragraph:

Like another recent polls, the Harris-Decima survey also suggests the Liberals and the NDP were in a neck-and-neck race, but there was a huge swath – some 28 per cent – of respondents who said they were still undecided with only days to go before voting day.

I will chalk this one as “neck and neck”, but will not represent it in the polling graphs.

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Angus Reid Strategies poll, details

Posted May 8, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

The details for the Angus Reid May 5-6 poll can be found here (Angus Reid, Local Copy).

Drilling down to the numbers, Carole James’ approval ratings have gone to 36% approve, 42% disapprove, which is a drastic improvement from the previous poll (27% approve, 49% disapprove). Premier Gordon Campbell has not changed beyond a couple percent (36% approve, 51% disapprove). Still, this is the first time that the Premier and Carole James are in line with each other, with the Premier having the higher disapproval rating.

The poll also asked whether people watched the debate – 2/3rds said they did not, 22% said they watched some of it, and 11% said they watched it entirely.

This poll obviously suggests that it will be a very tight race on election day.

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Angus Reid Strategies – BCL 44, NDP 42

Posted May 7, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

(Poll data can be found here.)

This is going to be good – pollsters having conflicting results – who’s going to win the war of the pollsters? According to the Globe and Mail, who commissioned Angus Reid Strategies to do a poll, 1013 adults were surveyed between May 5 and 6 with the following voting intentions:

BC Liberals – 44%
NDP – 42%
Green – 10%

The STV referendum is at 45% support.

Suffice to say if this is the actual election day result, the BC Liberals would form a razor-thin majority – 44 seats to 41, according to the paper napkin model.

I will be exploring further the issue of “vote efficiency” in a future article.

Also, when Angus Reid Strategies releases their detailed data, I will analyze it further.

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Mustel Group poll – BCL 47, NDP 38

Posted May 7, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

Mustel’s final poll on BC Election 2009 was conducted with 852 respondents, from April 29 to May 6th. This would unfortunately cover the time period of the debate. 8% of the voters (68 respondents) were undecided. The voter intention of this poll is:

BC Liberal – 47%
NDP – 38%
Green – 12%
Conservatives – 3%

On the STV Referendum, the intentions are:

First Past the Post – 43%
STV – 33%
No opinion – 24%

Details of the poll can be found here (Mustel Link, Local Copy).

Findings include:

The poll “discovered” that 84% of eligible voters intend on voting in this election, a number which I find very high as it would suggest that a good 20% of them at least are lying – or maybe they “intend” and will just never get around to it, which is more likely the case. There is no indication that this will be a high voter turnout election.

Not surprisingly, the economy was the core issue, according to those polled (33%).

The only real difference between this poll and the previous one is that Premier Gordon Campbell’s approval/disapproval numbers converted to 46% approve, 44% disapprove this poll; this was from 51% approve, 40% disapprove in the April poll. This could be statistical flux or it could be an indication that he was not doing himself too many favours this campaign on the personal charisma front. This is also reflected in the voter intention question – the BC Liberals got hit 5%, while the NDP gained 3%.

I would really like to see how the referendum question was asked before speculating on the result – the current poll results, if normalized, would be 57% NO, and 43% YES, which would be the opposite of the 2005 referendum result.

44% of the respondents approve of the Carbon tax; 41% do not; 15% are undecided.

If this is the 2009 election result, the BC Liberals should be happy – plugging this result in my paper napkin seat model, you would have a majority government of about 52-53 BC Liberal MLAs (43 required for a majority).

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