Bill Tieleman on NDP strategic error on carbon tax
Posted June 16, 2009 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Analysis
Comments (5)
Bill Tieleman writes about how the “Scrap the gas tax” campaign was a net vote winner for the NDP. I am inclined to agree with him, but will add a few points to the argument. Note that I was one of the commentators that thought that going against the carbon tax was good political strategy for the NDP, but they were waffling by calling it a “gas tax” instead of just directly campaigning against it.
The (federal) Conservative party already did all of the ground work on this issue in the previous election (spending millions of dollars in the process), and the NDP not keeping the theme consistent to the anti-carbon tax campaign probably cost the NDP a couple marginal seats (thinking Cariboo-Chilcotin, and perhaps Maple Ridge-Mission).
The (federal) Liberal party got slaughtered in British Columbia because of a very poor leader in Stephane Dion, but also because the thought of having two carbon taxes is even more revolting than one.
You can already see some lobbyists trying to break the revenue neutrality aspect of the carbon tax – the question is not whether they will be able to, the question is when the government will succumb to the pressures of vote-buying by diverting carbon tax revenues into spending initiatives. Pandora’s box has been opened, and there is no going back.
The NDP’s fear of facing backlash against the pro-carbon tax environmental lobby (e.g. Tzeborah Berman, etc.) scared Carole James into using this “gas tax” terminology even when it wouldn’t have done her or the party any good by trying to “hedge” its strategy by using lesser wording.
Mr. Campbell dodged a bullet during the campaign because oil prices had receded from the scary peak of last summer and fall. Gas prices hadn’t dropped much around the federal election date and Dion lost seats as voters feared his carbon tax would hurt them personally.
As gas pump prices came down, Campbell’s polls improved. Watch them drop again as another tax hits in July while oil is once again trending higher. (the unrest in Iran will soon be reflected in the market)
As for the election results; Ms. James was right to oppose the tax and the popular vote supports this. A muddled message cost the ndp close races in at least 5 seats where both greens and anti-tax voters needed more convincing.
Another thing would be that those who opposed the carbon tax were not the natural constituency of the NDP. Many who opposed the tax probably voted BC Liberal because there was either no other “right-wing” alternative in their riding, or they had little confidence in the BC Conservatives.
Many who opposed the tax probably didn’t trust Ms. James and the NDP, and weighed other issues.
Tielman’s a big part of the reason why the NDP keep loosing. I don’t know who is a worse advisor to the NDP….Bill Tielman or Rafe Mair?. On the same theme…who has the bigger ego ?
No question that Rafe Mair who is a right-wing demi-fascist has cost NDP dearly. When Socialism meets Nationalism, nothing decent comes out. British Columbians are smart to have considered this angle.
Isn’t NDP’s post-election drop of the anti-carbon tax position an admission that Gord was right and the carbon tax (which is a net neutral rebalancing and not a new tax) is popular?
NDP is now even supporting IPPs (smaller ones) and has dropped the moratorium. Another indication that NDP lost on these issues, and Gord won.
Why did we re-elect these bozo’s?
Lets face it. The New Democrats flip flop more than a fish in a bucket. They make a decision, fight for it, admit they were wrong and drift closer and closer to the lib-cons. The I happen to think the NDP was wrong about the carbon tax but right about IPP’s. Just as quickly as their enviromnental score rose, it fell. They flip flopped on both issues. Caron James i a moron, an arrogant flip flopping moron. I left the NDP because of her. All she does is blame BC’s problems on Campbell. Have you ever heard her put forward her vision for BC? Campbell’s not much better, than man claims to be a environmental hero and an economic genius, well his statements prove one thing. Hes just as arrogant as Carole. If he was such and environmental hero why does he allow IPP’s and if he such an economic genius why does he keep blowing our tax money on pet projects. We need to stand up to these bullies and take back BC!(No I am not suggesting an NDP Gov’t). Take a hike Gordo and Carole, we’ve had enough.