I don’t read it that way.
I see the 2009 BC Conservatives are a small party. Then again so were the BC Liberals in 1986, when they only got 6.7% of the vote (less then the 7.3% the BCC would have got, according to your math) All of a sudden they found a great leader and were expected to “win a few seats” in 1991 before the debate homerun.

The BC Conservatives might be nothing now, but they’ve placed themselves to become something. Lets assume for a moment that Iggy pop wins a majority somehow. There will be a lot of fairly right-wing BC Conservatives who will be on the opposition benches. Whoever takes over from Harper will almost certainly be more moderate – and many of the most right-wing conservatives don’t like Harper because they think he is too left wing! This will mean that one or two very right BC Conservative MP’s would get to choose between

A – Sitting as a powerless opposition backbencher in the scorned wing of the party for the next 5 years

or

B – Taking over the BC Conservative party (especially likely if more than one MP wants to go for it) and building it into a good party while still officially MP’s. Quitting a year or two before the 2013 election and making a good run for government.

If B happens, and I’m not saying it will, we will all of a sudden find a BC Conservative party with real support, experience, and strength. The pull for this Independent (who may well remain an independent for half the term or more) to join a “real” party on the right would be strong.

As they stand now, Huntington would only go over if she thought she could take over as party leader – and I don’t see that in her really – but politics change quickly, sometimes in as little as a few seconds – much like the debate “homeruns” of elections past.

As a Federal Conservative, Vicki Huntington is more likely to remain an independent, join the BC Conservatives, or join the BC Liberals than the Greens. There is no chance of her joining the NDP though.

I disagree with Sacha that she would not join the Conservatives because they are not sufficiently organized or credible. If she joined them, they would gain credibility and attract better people. As the only elected member, she could define the party, attract like-minded people fed up with the BC Liberals, win the leadership, and build a credible organization. A lot of conservative BC Liberals feel that the party is moving too far to the Centre, and/or just don’t like the idea of supporting a “Liberal” party.

In 1986, the BC Liberals under Art Lee weren’t really credible either, receiving 8.5% on average in the ridings in which they ran (I cheated here: this number is a ballpark calculated as overall popular vote / # ridings where they ran * total # of ridings = 6.74 / 55 * 69 = 8.5%.) The BC Conservatives received 7.32% this election in the ridings in which they ran, which is not far off what the Liberals received in 1986. And yet in 1991, the BC Liberals came from nowhere to win the official opposition.

I think that if Vicki wanted to be premier (or at least dismantle the Campbell coalition), she could pull it off, but it would be a lot of work. By fighting hard in the legislature for 4 years like Joy MacPhail and Jenny Kwan (Vicki is a powerful speaker), she could sympathy from the right-of-centre voters of BC. If she joined the BC Conservatives at some point, much of that sympathy would transfer to the party as well. If she were allowed to join the 2013 leaders debate between Campbell, James, and Sterk, (or their successors) she could easily outclass them all like Wilson did to Johnston and Harcourt in 1991.

For voters who find the BC Liberals too centrist, this is a possible 8-year plan to get BC on the “right” track. However, breaking up the coalition is risky, and would likely result in an NDP government (possibly even 2 terms). This would require a LOT of work, and Huntington is not as young as Wilson was in 1991. She might not even have any ambitions to be premier either. I’m not saying that any of this is likely, but I don’t think it is “extremely unlikely” either.