Advanced Voting – Full Results
Posted May 11, 2009 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Analysis
Comments (4)
I have attached the summary spreadsheet (Local Copy) of the 2009 BC Election advanced voting turnout.
I will just post the entire slew of data, ranked in declining order of turnout, based on advanced voting:
| Electoral District | Total | Registered | (%) | Rank | Inv. Rank |
| Boundary-Similkameen | 4,303 | 27,942 | 15.4% | 1 | 85 |
| Saanich North and the Islands | 6,682 | 43,651 | 15.3% | 2 | 84 |
| Kootenay East | 4,374 | 28,909 | 15.1% | 3 | 83 |
| Stikine | 1,831 | 12,291 | 14.9% | 4 | 82 |
| Cariboo-Chilcotin | 2,916 | 19,982 | 14.6% | 5 | 81 |
| Parksville-Qualicum | 5,865 | 40,339 | 14.5% | 6 | 80 |
| Fraser-Nicola | 2,955 | 20,575 | 14.4% | 7 | 79 |
| Comox Valley | 6,825 | 47,772 | 14.3% | 8 | 78 |
| Cariboo North | 3,177 | 23,090 | 13.8% | 9 | 77 |
| Oak Bay-Gordon Head | 5,215 | 38,206 | 13.6% | 10 | 76 |
| Cowichan Valley | 5,456 | 40,859 | 13.4% | 11 | 75 |
| Surrey-White Rock | 5,189 | 39,293 | 13.2% | 12 | 74 |
| Vancouver-Quilchena | 5,077 | 38,590 | 13.2% | 13 | 73 |
| Surrey-Fleetwood | 4,203 | 32,356 | 13.0% | 14 | 72 |
| Delta South | 4,260 | 33,818 | 12.6% | 15 | 71 |
| Powell River-Sunshine Coast | 4,441 | 35,564 | 12.5% | 16 | 70 |
| Juan de Fuca | 4,121 | 33,063 | 12.5% | 17 | 69 |
| Esquimalt-Royal Roads | 4,590 | 36,932 | 12.4% | 18 | 68 |
| Columbia River-Revelstoke | 2,890 | 23,512 | 12.3% | 19 | 67 |
| North Coast | 1,810 | 15,098 | 12.0% | 20 | 66 |
| Alberni-Pacific Rim | 3,616 | 30,278 | 11.9% | 21 | 65 |
| Shuswap | 4,737 | 39,949 | 11.9% | 22 | 64 |
| Penticton | 4,883 | 41,593 | 11.7% | 23 | 63 |
| Vancouver-West End | 4,112 | 35,064 | 11.7% | 24 | 62 |
| North Vancouver-Seymour | 4,258 | 36,671 | 11.6% | 25 | 61 |
| West Vancouver-Capilano | 4,514 | 38,938 | 11.6% | 26 | 60 |
| Vancouver-Fairview | 4,668 | 40,897 | 11.4% | 27 | 59 |
| New Westminster | 4,637 | 42,086 | 11.0% | 28 | 58 |
| Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows | 3,994 | 36,351 | 11.0% | 29 | 57 |
| Surrey-Newton | 3,282 | 29,946 | 11.0% | 30 | 56 |
| Vernon-Monashee | 4,868 | 44,961 | 10.8% | 31 | 55 |
| Vancouver-Point Grey | 4,379 | 40,605 | 10.8% | 32 | 54 |
| North Island | 4,211 | 39,310 | 10.7% | 33 | 53 |
| Skeena | 2,210 | 20,662 | 10.7% | 34 | 52 |
| Nanaimo-North Cowichan | 4,064 | 38,178 | 10.6% | 35 | 51 |
| Kelowna-Mission | 4,319 | 41,927 | 10.3% | 36 | 50 |
| Abbotsford West | 3,091 | 30,473 | 10.1% | 37 | 49 |
| Delta North | 3,454 | 34,478 | 10.0% | 38 | 48 |
| Nechako Lakes | 1,564 | 15,647 | 10.0% | 39 | 47 |
| Vancouver-False Creek | 3,316 | 33,322 | 10.0% | 40 | 46 |
| Coquitlam-Maillardville | 3,593 | 36,887 | 9.7% | 41 | 45 |
| Prince George-Mackenzie | 3,163 | 32,523 | 9.7% | 42 | 44 |
| Vancouver-Langara | 3,651 | 37,606 | 9.7% | 43 | 43 |
| Kamloops-South Thompson | 3,897 | 40,197 | 9.7% | 44 | 42 |
| Surrey-Panorama | 3,667 | 37,932 | 9.7% | 45 | 41 |
| Port Moody-Coquitlam | 3,137 | 33,000 | 9.5% | 46 | 40 |
| Nanaimo | 3,698 | 38,942 | 9.5% | 47 | 39 |
| Nelson-Creston | 2,546 | 26,907 | 9.5% | 48 | 38 |
| Kelowna-Lake Country | 3,935 | 41,588 | 9.5% | 49 | 37 |
| Coquitlam-Burke Mountain | 2,889 | 30,994 | 9.3% | 50 | 36 |
| Westside-Kelowna | 3,777 | 40,675 | 9.3% | 51 | 35 |
| West Vancouver-Sea to Sky | 3,180 | 34,318 | 9.3% | 52 | 34 |
| Vancouver-Fraserview | 3,438 | 37,525 | 9.2% | 53 | 33 |
| Saanich South | 3,334 | 37,044 | 9.0% | 54 | 32 |
| Chilliwack-Hope | 2,884 | 32,180 | 9.0% | 55 | 31 |
| Kamloops-North Thompson | 3,337 | 37,533 | 8.9% | 56 | 30 |
| North Vancouver-Lonsdale | 3,311 | 37,398 | 8.9% | 57 | 29 |
| Burnaby-Edmonds | 2,989 | 33,826 | 8.8% | 58 | 28 |
| Victoria-Swan Lake | 3,340 | 37,881 | 8.8% | 59 | 27 |
| Victoria-Beacon Hill | 3,699 | 42,046 | 8.8% | 60 | 26 |
| Peace River North | 1,982 | 22,577 | 8.8% | 61 | 25 |
| Burnaby North | 3,305 | 37,854 | 8.7% | 62 | 24 |
| Burnaby-Lougheed | 3,070 | 35,188 | 8.7% | 63 | 23 |
| Port Coquitlam | 3,191 | 36,579 | 8.7% | 64 | 22 |
| Chilliwack | 3,021 | 35,830 | 8.4% | 65 | 21 |
| Peace River South | 1,429 | 16,971 | 8.4% | 66 | 20 |
| Langley | 3,528 | 42,410 | 8.3% | 67 | 19 |
| Kootenay West | 2,519 | 30,380 | 8.3% | 68 | 18 |
| Maple Ridge-Mission | 2,826 | 34,807 | 8.1% | 69 | 17 |
| Surrey-Green Timbers | 2,352 | 29,049 | 8.1% | 70 | 16 |
| Prince George-Valemount | 2,728 | 34,212 | 8.0% | 71 | 15 |
| Burnaby-Deer Lake | 2,662 | 34,040 | 7.8% | 72 | 14 |
| Richmond-Steveston | 3,256 | 41,951 | 7.8% | 73 | 13 |
| Richmond Centre | 3,165 | 41,800 | 7.6% | 74 | 12 |
| Abbotsford-Mission | 2,529 | 34,063 | 7.4% | 75 | 11 |
| Fort Langley-Aldergrove | 3,066 | 42,591 | 7.2% | 76 | 10 |
| Surrey-Cloverdale | 2,847 | 39,556 | 7.2% | 77 | 9 |
| Vancouver-Mount Pleasant | 2,676 | 37,300 | 7.2% | 78 | 8 |
| Surrey-Whalley | 2,300 | 32,918 | 7.0% | 79 | 7 |
| Surrey-Tynehead | 2,337 | 33,481 | 7.0% | 80 | 6 |
| Vancouver-Kingsway | 2,200 | 35,518 | 6.2% | 81 | 5 |
| Richmond East | 2,522 | 40,796 | 6.2% | 82 | 4 |
| Vancouver-Kensington | 2,193 | 36,090 | 6.1% | 83 | 3 |
| Abbotsford South | 1,862 | 33,678 | 5.5% | 84 | 2 |
| Vancouver-Hastings | 2,118 | 38,356 | 5.5% | 85 | 1 |
Safe ridings tend to have lower advance poll turnout; competitive ridings tend to have higher advance poll turnout. I suspect the reason is partly due to relative intensity of voter interest and the GOTV efforts of the competitive candidate campaign teams. I expect the percentage levels will correspond with what the election day turnout performance is as well.
None of which tells us who this benefits. So I won’t try…..
It is interesting, however, that Parksville-Qualicum, which most have rated as a safe Liberal seat is in the high advance poll turnout rate category, and Burnaby-Deer Lake, which many expect to be a squeaker, is in the low turnout rate category. I suppose there are outliers and anomalies with everything.
Now that we have final advance polling numbers, we can see the stunning increase in turnout. Almost 90,000 more turned out this time for the advance polls.
Although, I can’t make heads or tails on what it means. If turn out is so high, and high turnout means change, is Surrey-Whiterock about to flip to the NDP? Not likely…or Saanich North and the Islands? …well I don’t think so.
I think Saanich North and the Islands going NDP is quite doable.
The problem with all of these econometrix models of predicting seats and voter precentages, etc is that they did not predict the crash in the 2008 stock market either. Yet looking back it was obvious the US housing sub-prime mortgage crisis was going to bring the the world economy down.
Vancouver, the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley may be living in an economic bubble. I had a conversation with an old Socred today, trying to explain BC-STV to him and his wife, and he was fretting about IPPs and forest policy and how the province was being sold-off to offshore interests.
That’s what the battle is about on Vancouver Island, the Interior and in the North.
Saanich North might be doable for the NDP, but not likely…they couldn’t win that seat in 1991 during the Socred stomp. It went from a socred seat to a liberal seat.