Polling of 2009 vs. 2005 elections
Posted May 10, 2009 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Polls
Comments (5)
The last polls have been released (unless if there are any other polling companies releasing on May 11), but we have the following:
2009 Polls
| Date | Source | BCL | NDP | GRN | Sample Size | +/- (%) |
| 2-May-09 | Environics | 47 | 36 | 13 | 601 | 4 |
| 6-May-09 | Mustel | 47 | 38 | 12 | 852 | 3.4 |
| 6-May-09 | Angus Reid Strategies | 44 | 42 | 10 | 1013 | 3.1 |
| 7-May-09 | Ipsos-Reid | 47 | 39 | 10 | 800 | 3.5 |
| 9-May-09 | Innovative Research | 46 | 37 | 11 | 610 | 4 |
2005 Polls
Unfortunately I do not have sample sizes associated with the following polls:
| Date | Source | BCL | NDP | GRN |
| 13-May-05 | Ipsos-Reid | 47 | 39 | 11 |
| 13-May-05 | Strategic Counsel | 49 | 36 | 13 |
| 11-May-05 | Mustel | 45 | 40 | 12 |
Actual results, 2005 election: BCL 45.8%, NDP 41.5%, GRN 9.2%
The average indicates very slightly higher poll numbers for the NDP, very slightly lower for the BC Libs and lower for the Green Party. The ‘other’ vote is up slightly in 2009, on average. Of course it all seems to be within a reasonable margin of error…
Looks to me like the BC Libs and NDP may swap a few seats on election night, but the proportion of seats in the House will change little, or increase slightly for the NDP without taking power.
Thanks Sacha, this is very interesting. Looks like the election results in 2005 were a lot closer than the polls were saying at the time.
We can rationalize these polls to death, but at this point why not also make some predictions?
46% – 40% with the legislature at 50 – 35 for the BC Liberals. The Greens get 10%, the BC Conservatives get 2%, and independents and others get 2%. James and Campbell are fine. Sterk barely comes 3rd, Huntington comes 2nd, and Hanni comes 3rd and costs Bennett his seat. My riding of Saanich South goes to Robin Adair (BCL).
Rationale: Within the margin of error of all 5 polls, and fairly similar to last time, including the understated NDP vote. This is because NDP will again be the best at getting the vote out, the BC Liberals not quite as good, and the Greens will have the least reliable voters. Green supporters will be less inclined to vote for the NDP than 2005. Less of a backlash effect than in 2005 i.e. people saw that the BC Liberals were likely going to win and wanted to ensure a strong opposition. Again, the NDP vote will be more efficiently distributed, so they won’t “lose” seats, but their proportion of seats will drop slightly. BC Liberals pick up in the Fraser Valley, GVRD and my riding but lose a couple rural ones.
I still want to see the final results of the Advance voting. Higher turnout at 71% in 2001 represented a desire for change. There were 456 candidates in that election, but only 346 in this one.
226 candidates for parties and individuals other than the Liberal, NDP and Green in 2001, compared to only 91 in this election. If you eliminate the 24 Conservatives, the number is reduced to 67 and in 25 constituencies there are only three candidates.
So what is being said by Mike is that an average of 1.5 candidates scattered across 60 constituencies will achieve half what 226 candidates did in 2001 in 79. I am not convinced as that would mean an average of 5.7% in 60 constituencies.
If you give another 1% to the NDP from other and 2% from the Green to NDP that is 46% to 43%, which is much closer. Not the result I want, but it is possible.
The other observation I will make is that the last polls in 2005 were taken up to seven days before the vote. Ipsos-Reid knocked that down one more day by polling on the 6th this time.
Typically swing voters do not make up their minds until the Saturday or Sunday. As late as tonight I still met a voter in the grocery store who was undecided between Green and NDP, who voted NDP last time.
That is the 64 dollar question, who is going to shift where and in what numbers, especially if the turnout goes up to 71%.
This election is much more like 2005 than it is 2001 (few elections are like 2001). In 2005, independents and other won 3.5% of the vote (Green + BCNDP + Liberal = 96.5%). This even included the centrist DRBC party that many people thought would be a potential spoiler, but they only ended up winning 0.8%. It was a protest vote, and while the Conservatives might do a bit better, it’s still a protest vote. I think they will come closer to 1.5% than 2% exactly, but I rounded up and wanted everything to add to 100% for simplicity.
Why not make a prediction of your own Andy? Or are you saying 46-43-8 (L-N-G)?