Comments on: Advanced voting spreadsheet

By: Will

Will — Tue, 12 May 2009 06:00:30 +0000

These counts are interesting. So are some of the contents of the messages. Predictions based in part on what one hopes the outcome will be are irrelevant.
Polls based on voter turnout, what ridings, and facts, are more likely to be correct.
These counts indicate high interest in highly volatile ridings, which is much the same as the polling in the last municipal elections, when a large percentage of incumbents were tossed, and major centers moved left.
For those of you impressing your personal politics on your predictions, this is very dangerous. You run the risk of your fellow supporters believing its all in the bag, and not bothering to vote.

By: Okanaganite

Okanaganite — Mon, 11 May 2009 15:50:34 +0000

In fairness to Boundary-Similkameen the new riding boundaries are largely responsible for the increases in advanced polls turnout. For example; Big White Ski Resort in Kelowna is inauspiciously now attached to this Southern riding instead of a Kelowna riding as it should have been. Thus advance polling is the most convenient means of voting. The same can be said for residents of the Northern part of this riding who are 5 minutes from Penticton and yet have to travel 20 minutes down South to vote in Okanagan Falls; thus advance polls come in handy.

By: Glass

Glass — Mon, 11 May 2009 05:13:11 +0000

Cascadia – I agree that the level of uncertainty is highest that I can remember.

However, this does not mean an automatic NDP win. When the NDP comes out pro-global warming by fighting the Carbon Tax and the IPPs, it is obvious that they are going by ideology and wish to win through emotions and not by reasoning.

BC citizens are not that stupid to fall for this. NDP activists have a contempt for the ordinary folks’ intelligence and consider them to be stupid and easy to dupe. The activists and ideologues will be up for a rude awakening Tuesday 8 pm.

Meanwhile, pls. pass the favorite NDP drink around.

By: Cascadia

Cascadia — Mon, 11 May 2009 04:47:38 +0000

I think you are all too optimistic about the BC Liberals total. That goes for seats and for votes. After conceding that pollsters overstate the BC Liberals votes, after noting that the advance polls have extremely high turnouts in the most competitive ridings and after conceding that a low turnout would favor the BC Liberals, you then appear not to make any adjustments in your model to account for that.

You may be right, but I am inclined to think not. The election turned shortly after it started and the BC Liberals have been eroding strength ever since then. Election night is apt to be far more interesting than either of you are contemplating……

By: Mike

Mike — Mon, 11 May 2009 04:32:20 +0000

Glass, based on that same math, the 2005 result was extremely unlikely (so close in terms of seats). I hope I’m wrong. I want the Liberals to do better than 2005 so Carole James will have to resign and I never have to listen to her lead the NDP in an election campaign ever again.

By: Glass

Glass — Mon, 11 May 2009 03:52:03 +0000

Checkout this predictor.

http://www.reallifemath.ca/Site/Welcome.html

If this doesn’t depress the passionate group-thinking ideologues and activists, then nothing almost will. (Pass on that koolaid please. ;-)