Advanced voting spreadsheet
Posted May 10, 2009 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Analysis
Comments (6)
I have put the advanced voting data into a spreadsheet for easy manipulation; I have also ranked (from most to least and least to most) the voter turnout so far to date based on the first three days of advanced voting.
Here is the spreadsheet: 2009 Advanced Voting – First Three Days.
Top 10 ridings, advanced voter turnout, first 3 days:
| Electoral District | (%) | Rank |
| Boundary-Similkameen | 12.4% | 1 |
| Kootenay East | 12.3% | 2 |
| Cariboo-Chilcotin | 12.1% | 3 |
| Saanich North and the Islands | 12.0% | 4 |
| Fraser-Nicola | 11.9% | 5 |
| Parksville-Qualicum | 11.8% | 6 |
| Stikine | 11.7% | 7 |
| Comox Valley | 11.4% | 8 |
| Cariboo North | 11.1% | 9 |
| Oak Bay-Gordon Head | 10.2% | 10 |
Bottom 10 ridings, advanced voter turnout, first 3 days:
| Electoral District | (%) | Rank |
| Vancouver-Hastings | 3.4% | 85 |
| Vancouver-Kensington | 3.7% | 84 |
| Vancouver-Kingsway | 3.7% | 83 |
| Richmond East | 3.8% | 82 |
| Abbotsford South | 4.1% | 81 |
| Surrey-Tynehead | 4.2% | 80 |
| Surrey-Whalley | 4.6% | 79 |
| Surrey-Green Timbers | 4.8% | 78 |
| Vancouver-Mount Pleasant | 4.8% | 77 |
| Richmond Centre | 4.8% | 76 |
Some analysis:
Won’t take a rocket scientist to figure this one out, but the areas with the highest voter turnout appear to be ridings that are “in play”, and also rural ridings.
Checkout this predictor.
http://www.reallifemath.ca/Site/Welcome.html
If this doesn’t depress the passionate group-thinking ideologues and activists, then nothing almost will. (Pass on that koolaid please. ;-)
Glass, based on that same math, the 2005 result was extremely unlikely (so close in terms of seats). I hope I’m wrong. I want the Liberals to do better than 2005 so Carole James will have to resign and I never have to listen to her lead the NDP in an election campaign ever again.
I think you are all too optimistic about the BC Liberals total. That goes for seats and for votes. After conceding that pollsters overstate the BC Liberals votes, after noting that the advance polls have extremely high turnouts in the most competitive ridings and after conceding that a low turnout would favor the BC Liberals, you then appear not to make any adjustments in your model to account for that.
You may be right, but I am inclined to think not. The election turned shortly after it started and the BC Liberals have been eroding strength ever since then. Election night is apt to be far more interesting than either of you are contemplating……
Cascadia – I agree that the level of uncertainty is highest that I can remember.
However, this does not mean an automatic NDP win. When the NDP comes out pro-global warming by fighting the Carbon Tax and the IPPs, it is obvious that they are going by ideology and wish to win through emotions and not by reasoning.
BC citizens are not that stupid to fall for this. NDP activists have a contempt for the ordinary folks’ intelligence and consider them to be stupid and easy to dupe. The activists and ideologues will be up for a rude awakening Tuesday 8 pm.
Meanwhile, pls. pass the favorite NDP drink around.
In fairness to Boundary-Similkameen the new riding boundaries are largely responsible for the increases in advanced polls turnout. For example; Big White Ski Resort in Kelowna is inauspiciously now attached to this Southern riding instead of a Kelowna riding as it should have been. Thus advance polling is the most convenient means of voting. The same can be said for residents of the Northern part of this riding who are 5 minutes from Penticton and yet have to travel 20 minutes down South to vote in Okanagan Falls; thus advance polls come in handy.
These counts are interesting. So are some of the contents of the messages. Predictions based in part on what one hopes the outcome will be are irrelevant.
Polls based on voter turnout, what ridings, and facts, are more likely to be correct.
These counts indicate high interest in highly volatile ridings, which is much the same as the polling in the last municipal elections, when a large percentage of incumbents were tossed, and major centers moved left.
For those of you impressing your personal politics on your predictions, this is very dangerous. You run the risk of your fellow supporters believing its all in the bag, and not bothering to vote.