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	<title>Comments on: Ipsos-Reid: BCL 47, NDP 39</title>
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	<link>http://bc2009.com/2009/05/08/ipsos-reid-bcl-47-ndp-39/</link>
	<description>The race for Victoria</description>
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		<title>By: Glass</title>
		<link>http://bc2009.com/2009/05/08/ipsos-reid-bcl-47-ndp-39/comment-page-1/#comment-1961</link>
		<dc:creator>Glass</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 20:28:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bc2009.com/?p=2542#comment-1961</guid>
		<description>I have to second MDB.  I voted advanced for the first time ever, just because I happened to be at the polling station area and Tuesday is a bad day for me.

Over time, you should see all 5 days of voting to be equal in turnout, with a bias to the last day, as there are more polling stations.  And Saturday is an easy day to vote too.

Andy is right on track.  The socialist mode of production means graft, waste, and the abusive mixing of economic power (of the crown corporations) with political power.

Just look at the way COPE 378 is taking their $100,000 average salaries and benefits and funneling that into anti-Liberal advertisements and GOTV campaigns.  Its odious how socialists have absolutely no ethics in using taxpayer money to influence the election and grab power against the interests of the very same taxpayer.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have to second MDB.  I voted advanced for the first time ever, just because I happened to be at the polling station area and Tuesday is a bad day for me.</p>
<p>Over time, you should see all 5 days of voting to be equal in turnout, with a bias to the last day, as there are more polling stations.  And Saturday is an easy day to vote too.</p>
<p>Andy is right on track.  The socialist mode of production means graft, waste, and the abusive mixing of economic power (of the crown corporations) with political power.</p>
<p>Just look at the way COPE 378 is taking their $100,000 average salaries and benefits and funneling that into anti-Liberal advertisements and GOTV campaigns.  Its odious how socialists have absolutely no ethics in using taxpayer money to influence the election and grab power against the interests of the very same taxpayer.</p>
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		<title>By: p kelly</title>
		<link>http://bc2009.com/2009/05/08/ipsos-reid-bcl-47-ndp-39/comment-page-1/#comment-1958</link>
		<dc:creator>p kelly</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 18:06:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bc2009.com/?p=2542#comment-1958</guid>
		<description>Andy - no worries on the numbers; i can see where anyone would get the two mixed up</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Andy &#8211; no worries on the numbers; i can see where anyone would get the two mixed up</p>
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		<title>By: Andy Shadrack</title>
		<link>http://bc2009.com/2009/05/08/ipsos-reid-bcl-47-ndp-39/comment-page-1/#comment-1957</link>
		<dc:creator>Andy Shadrack</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 17:35:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bc2009.com/?p=2542#comment-1957</guid>
		<description>My apologies to pkelly for the error I made yesterday.  I see I compared apples and oranges, because I did not notice Elections BC was using registered voters who voted for their 2001 and 2005 reporting of Advanced voting and overall number of registered voters in 2009.

To err is human.

Glass you missed one seat from your list:

Stikine at 11.7%, as compared to 7.9% for Bulkley Valley-Stikine in 2005 for all four days.

Other than that can we please keep the vitriol out of this discussion. As I have said elsewhere, it would make for better politics in BC if the &quot;Liberals&quot; showed more compassion for those who are less able to look after themselves and it would be really good if the NDP did not try to emulate the failed policies of British Labour Prime Minister, Harold Wilson like:

buying up Kootenay Forest Products, Ocean Falls and Panco Poultry in the 1970&#039;s    

buying Skeena Cellulose and building fast ferries in the 1990&#039;s

Incidentally I also oppose bailing out the auto industry too.

I much prefer the Swedish model that gave out early retirement and retrained other workers and allowed capital to invest elsewhere rather than prop up the Swedish ship building industry when it could not compete with Japan.

A proper retraining program, jointly funded fed/prov program under EI, with a renewed apprenticeship program in BC would do much more than the current Job Opportunities Fund.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My apologies to pkelly for the error I made yesterday.  I see I compared apples and oranges, because I did not notice Elections BC was using registered voters who voted for their 2001 and 2005 reporting of Advanced voting and overall number of registered voters in 2009.</p>
<p>To err is human.</p>
<p>Glass you missed one seat from your list:</p>
<p>Stikine at 11.7%, as compared to 7.9% for Bulkley Valley-Stikine in 2005 for all four days.</p>
<p>Other than that can we please keep the vitriol out of this discussion. As I have said elsewhere, it would make for better politics in BC if the &#8220;Liberals&#8221; showed more compassion for those who are less able to look after themselves and it would be really good if the NDP did not try to emulate the failed policies of British Labour Prime Minister, Harold Wilson like:</p>
<p>buying up Kootenay Forest Products, Ocean Falls and Panco Poultry in the 1970&#8217;s    </p>
<p>buying Skeena Cellulose and building fast ferries in the 1990&#8217;s</p>
<p>Incidentally I also oppose bailing out the auto industry too.</p>
<p>I much prefer the Swedish model that gave out early retirement and retrained other workers and allowed capital to invest elsewhere rather than prop up the Swedish ship building industry when it could not compete with Japan.</p>
<p>A proper retraining program, jointly funded fed/prov program under EI, with a renewed apprenticeship program in BC would do much more than the current Job Opportunities Fund.</p>
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		<title>By: MBD</title>
		<link>http://bc2009.com/2009/05/08/ipsos-reid-bcl-47-ndp-39/comment-page-1/#comment-1956</link>
		<dc:creator>MBD</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 17:20:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bc2009.com/?p=2542#comment-1956</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m not convinced there will be a really high voter turnout. People may just be more likely to use the advanced polls this time. Either because they are more aware of the convenience or they are getting more pressure to do so.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not convinced there will be a really high voter turnout. People may just be more likely to use the advanced polls this time. Either because they are more aware of the convenience or they are getting more pressure to do so.</p>
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		<title>By: Cascadia</title>
		<link>http://bc2009.com/2009/05/08/ipsos-reid-bcl-47-ndp-39/comment-page-1/#comment-1951</link>
		<dc:creator>Cascadia</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 06:24:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bc2009.com/?p=2542#comment-1951</guid>
		<description>So what we derive from all of this is that there is not likely to be a low voter turnout......which everyone was saying would favor the BC Liberals if it occurred.  So now it is not likely to occur, how can it still favor the BC Liberals to have a high voter turnout.  That doesn&#039;t make sense.

What is more likely is that if there is a higher voter turnout this time than last, it means there are more people motivated to vote and express themselves on something that is a concern to them about how things have been done by the current government.  

The upshot of that is that the polling models are unlikely to be accurate.  Pollsters spend a lot of their time focusing on history.  When voters change their minds and do things that are &quot;extraordinary&quot;, the polls are unlikely to reflect it accurately or at all.

All of which suggests we are in for an interesting evening on Tuesday night.....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So what we derive from all of this is that there is not likely to be a low voter turnout&#8230;&#8230;which everyone was saying would favor the BC Liberals if it occurred.  So now it is not likely to occur, how can it still favor the BC Liberals to have a high voter turnout.  That doesn&#8217;t make sense.</p>
<p>What is more likely is that if there is a higher voter turnout this time than last, it means there are more people motivated to vote and express themselves on something that is a concern to them about how things have been done by the current government.  </p>
<p>The upshot of that is that the polling models are unlikely to be accurate.  Pollsters spend a lot of their time focusing on history.  When voters change their minds and do things that are &#8220;extraordinary&#8221;, the polls are unlikely to reflect it accurately or at all.</p>
<p>All of which suggests we are in for an interesting evening on Tuesday night&#8230;..</p>
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		<title>By: Glass</title>
		<link>http://bc2009.com/2009/05/08/ipsos-reid-bcl-47-ndp-39/comment-page-1/#comment-1950</link>
		<dc:creator>Glass</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 05:58:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bc2009.com/?p=2542#comment-1950</guid>
		<description>Based on degree of relative advanced voting (square weighted), and size of the riding (square root weighted), this is what I get for the top 15 ridings with large advanced turnout (incumbent party):

 Saanich North and the Islands  LIB
 Comox Valley  LIB
 Parksville-Qualicum  LIB
 Boundary-Similkameen  LIB
 Kootenay East  LIB
 Cariboo-Chilcotin  NDP
 Surrey-White Rock  LIB
 Oak Bay-Gordon Head  LIB
 Cowichan Valley  NDP
 Fraser-Nicola  NDP
 Cariboo North  NDP
 Shuswap  LIB
 Penticton  LIB
 Powell River-Sunshine Coast  NDP
 Esquimalt-Royal Roads  NDP

6 NDP - 9 LIB</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Based on degree of relative advanced voting (square weighted), and size of the riding (square root weighted), this is what I get for the top 15 ridings with large advanced turnout (incumbent party):</p>
<p> Saanich North and the Islands  LIB<br />
 Comox Valley  LIB<br />
 Parksville-Qualicum  LIB<br />
 Boundary-Similkameen  LIB<br />
 Kootenay East  LIB<br />
 Cariboo-Chilcotin  NDP<br />
 Surrey-White Rock  LIB<br />
 Oak Bay-Gordon Head  LIB<br />
 Cowichan Valley  NDP<br />
 Fraser-Nicola  NDP<br />
 Cariboo North  NDP<br />
 Shuswap  LIB<br />
 Penticton  LIB<br />
 Powell River-Sunshine Coast  NDP<br />
 Esquimalt-Royal Roads  NDP</p>
<p>6 NDP &#8211; 9 LIB</p>
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		<title>By: Glass</title>
		<link>http://bc2009.com/2009/05/08/ipsos-reid-bcl-47-ndp-39/comment-page-1/#comment-1949</link>
		<dc:creator>Glass</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 05:34:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bc2009.com/?p=2542#comment-1949</guid>
		<description>Thanks for the correction kelly/Sacha.  I stand corrected.

2005 3 day advanced turnout:  5.1%

2009 3 day advanced turnout:  7.3%</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks for the correction kelly/Sacha.  I stand corrected.</p>
<p>2005 3 day advanced turnout:  5.1%</p>
<p>2009 3 day advanced turnout:  7.3%</p>
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		<title>By: Glass</title>
		<link>http://bc2009.com/2009/05/08/ipsos-reid-bcl-47-ndp-39/comment-page-1/#comment-1948</link>
		<dc:creator>Glass</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 05:30:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bc2009.com/?p=2542#comment-1948</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;It really lowers the quality of debate here (and its been really good here to be honest) with your insult laden diatribes.&lt;/i&gt;

Uhhh -- and who have I insulted?  The NDP?  The NDP is not a person.  Get your categories correct and cut the BS artistry.

Pls. provide link to Global TV.  Its hard to trust a koolaid drinker that denies facts such as the relative advance voters declining.

And maybe you should polish on your polisci?  Remember all the lefties marching with the Islamists screaming &quot;we are all Hezbollah now&quot;?  Where have you been in the past 20 years (since the fall of communism)?  If you dont understand the link between leftwing fascism such as Hugo Chavez (buddy of Ahmadinejad) and rightwing religious fascism (Islamism), then go and read Mr. George Galloway or the lefty manifesto of his Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood friends.

The federal NDP now has Islamic and faith-based caucuses in Ottawa.  Check them out.

&lt;i&gt;Glass, how can you say that advance voting suggests turnout will be down when we have already beaten last election’s early voting with one more day of advance polls yet to go?&lt;/i&gt;

Now you seem to be lying.  You never should compare absolute numbers (that is reserved for NDP liars such as Rafe Mair and Shane Simpson).  Always compare unit numbers (percentages).  You were proven wrong on Advanced voting.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>It really lowers the quality of debate here (and its been really good here to be honest) with your insult laden diatribes.</i></p>
<p>Uhhh &#8212; and who have I insulted?  The NDP?  The NDP is not a person.  Get your categories correct and cut the BS artistry.</p>
<p>Pls. provide link to Global TV.  Its hard to trust a koolaid drinker that denies facts such as the relative advance voters declining.</p>
<p>And maybe you should polish on your polisci?  Remember all the lefties marching with the Islamists screaming &#8220;we are all Hezbollah now&#8221;?  Where have you been in the past 20 years (since the fall of communism)?  If you dont understand the link between leftwing fascism such as Hugo Chavez (buddy of Ahmadinejad) and rightwing religious fascism (Islamism), then go and read Mr. George Galloway or the lefty manifesto of his Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood friends.</p>
<p>The federal NDP now has Islamic and faith-based caucuses in Ottawa.  Check them out.</p>
<p><i>Glass, how can you say that advance voting suggests turnout will be down when we have already beaten last election’s early voting with one more day of advance polls yet to go?</i></p>
<p>Now you seem to be lying.  You never should compare absolute numbers (that is reserved for NDP liars such as Rafe Mair and Shane Simpson).  Always compare unit numbers (percentages).  You were proven wrong on Advanced voting.</p>
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