Ipsos-Reid: BCL 47, NDP 39
Posted May 8, 2009 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Polls
Comments (28)
According to the Vancouver Sun, an Ipsos-Reid poll, 800 people surveyed from May 4 to May 7, has the following voter intention:
BC Liberal 47%
NDP 39%
Green 10%
Source documents: (Ipsos Reid, Local Copy)
The only other colour the article provides is that 15% of BC Liberal voters are considering changing their mind, 24% of NDP voters are, and 32% of Greens are.
This leaves the following election day polls:
May 7, 2009 – Ipsos-Reid – BC Libs 47, NDP 39, Green 10
May 6, 2009 – Angus Reid Strategies – BC Libs 44, NDP 42, Green 10
May 6, 2009 – Mustel – BC Libs 47, NDP 38, Green 12
May 2, 2009 – Environics – BC Libs 47, NDP 36, Green 13
Angus Reid Strategies currently is the outlier. Who will be correct?
I don’t like online polls because they are easily manipulated so that leaves it down to three. Pick a winner ? I will go with Ipsos-Reid on this one
Personally speaking, if Angus Reid Strategies shares were publicly traded, I would be shorting that stock right now. ;)
BTW, for the first time ever, I also voted this afternoon in the advance poll but didn’t understand why both the party preference and FPTP/STV ballots were placed in the same ballot box.
That’s gonna be a convoluted mess, in terms of counting, on election night.
BJ – it shouldnt be too difficult to separate the ballots. At the counting table they will have 2 extra stacks for STV (yes and no), in addition to the stacks for each candidate. A ballot will then be assigned to its stack, whether a candidate or a referendum.
So they dont have to first separate the two kinds of ballot. They just process the ballots as a single stream.
I would short ARS as well. They are playing a dangerous game of firing up NDP voters to come out of the woodwork and get over that “2%” deficit. For them to claim to be an unbiased polling organization is the furthest from the truth.
By pretending that the NDP may lose bt a hair, they are getting NDP sympathetics who would normally not bother to vote, to come out and bridge the actual 8% NDP gap.
Its so obvious that they are manipulating the election.
This is probably the last poll we’ll see before its all over, and if nothing else – they all show that its getting close…the liberals internal polling suggests that its closer than Ipsos reported; I certainly think it is…now we’ll see whose party’s GOTV program is better :)
See y’all on e-day!
Innovative Research Group poll:
Liberal – 46%
NDP – 37%
Green – 11%
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20090509.BCELECTIONPOLL09ART2109/TPStory/National
Mustel, Ipsos and IRG all show a 8% – 9% Liberal lead.
The concept of “shorting” Angus Reid Strategies shares even sounds better now! :)
Sacha, would it be possible to chart the 2005 vs 2009 election polling so we can see in closer detail the poll results in the two weeks before the election? Right now all the recent polls are just a big mess on the chart and it’s tough to get an idea of what polls were taken when.
I would also be interested in an analysis of the results of each polling company and whether or not clear trends can be discerned from their results (such as Angus favoring the NDP, Mustel the Liberals, etc), as well as which polling companies were most accurate in predicting the results in 2005.
Mustel was the most accurate in 2005, predicting 45% for the Liberals when they got 45.8%. Mustel and Robbins both predicted the NDP at 40%, when they got 41.5%. Ipsos-Reid was closest with the Green party predicting 11%,when they got 9.2%. All other parties got 3.5% and the two closest pollsters were Mustel and Ipsos-Reid at 3%.
Thus Mustel was the most accurate, but Ipsos-reid was within their margin of error too. Robbins had the NDP ahead of the Liberals and was seven points off their actual vote.
In the 2008 federal election Angus Reid Strategies was off on the NDP vote, by about 1.8% too high, but they were within .6% for the Conservatives,.8% for the Liberals and .2% for the Green vote. Thus they were within the margin of error for the Conservatives, Liberals and Green, but outside the margin by nearly triple on the NDP.
It is extremely difficult to be accurate, especially with lower polling minor parties when their vote is soft to begin with. Historically smaller parties like the Green Party, have not had the same kind of Get-Out-The Vote teams and strategies at work as say the Liberals and NDP.
In 2004, Prime Minister Paul Martin, successfully targeted the soft Green and NDP vote to eke out a minority victory over the Conservatives. But in any election there is always some drift between parties that Nik Nanos tracked in the 2008 federal election.
There are, for example, Green party supporters who will vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals on issues like IPPs, but at the same time there are long time New Democrat supporters who are voting Green because of the NDP’s position on the Carbon Tax and as a result of holding women only nomination races.
What is not clear is whether the cross voting will cancel itself out, and/or whether a sense of closeness in certain races will, for example, drive down the Green and Conservative Party vote.
Another factor, not often mentioned in this election, is that the number of candidates outside of the three largest parties has shrunk to 91. In fact in 25 seats there are only three candidates. So if you do not like either the NDP or Liberals, the choice is very limited as to your other options.
p kelly – stop the hit and run propaganda. NDP, being the ideological liar demagogues that they are, will only receive votes from the unions who are freeloading on the government. No rational person will conceivably vote for the NDP. They have a huge war chest and they have paid all these fake environmental organizations (WCWC) to do their dirty bidding.
If you think that BC citizens will allow the lefties and the unions to manipulate our democracy so blatently and disgustingly, you are wrong.
Enjoy your defeat party. I for one will shed no tears for the liars, populists, and demagogues of the NDP who will get kicked out – and that includes Carole.
AMEN!!!
One interesting finding from the Ipsos poll. It asked a question on “likely voters” and 66% stated that they were “absolutely certain” to vote.
Turnout in my guestimation will probably also be in the same 63% – 65% range based upon historic figures.
And the 8% lead for the Libs increases to 11% with these “absolutely certain” voters:
Liberal – 49%
NDP – 38%
Green – 11%
The first time that I’ve ever seen the “absolutely certain” to vote question asked before.
Well, Glass…so much for keeping the level of debate at a civil level. All I did is re-affirm that the contest is close – even insider liberal polling comfirms that; and you take a swipe at me for it. I think that reflects more on you personally than me…but that’s ok, your personal attack on me and attempt to demonize union members won’t change the vote results.
Fact: Public and internal polling says its close.
Fact: Turnout is already higher than 2005, 2001…and trends show that increased turn out (generally) means a desire for change.
Just as a sidebar, I’ll let you and everyone in on what I’ve heard. My step dad’s favorite pub is in an area that is largely a Liberal stronghold. His pals are business people that are both card-carrying and long time BC Liberals/Socreds (pre-1991)…almost all of them would normally vote Liberal on the drop of a hat, but might not vote at all because of Campbell.
Its hardly scientific, but that’s just one angle that I’ve heard.
So go ahead…insult me if that makes you feel good on the inside. I really could care less at your inability to debate like an adult.
I don’t think it is worth getting worked up about the various polls and different results. I do think p kelly makes a good point about advance polls turnout.
Either there are many angry voters out there looking for a change that will favor the NDP or there are many people terrified of the NDP and voting accordingly against the NDP. I think it could be either or.
Only a few more days and we will find out.
P.Kelly is off the mark, as after three days of Advance voting the percentage of registered voters is 7.3%…down from 8.2% in 2005. If this trend were to keep going through the fourth day of Advance voting and into E-Day, we could see the turnout in the mid-fifties.
There are, however, 12 seats where the turnout has now equaled or exceeded 10% of the registered voters…well above the four day turnout in 2005. At least four more look poised to break through the 10% of registered voters barrier.
7 of those were held by Liberals before the writ was dropped, of which four are on Vancouver Island and one each in the North, Interior and Lower Mainland.
4 seats are held by the NDP, one on Vancouver Island and 3 in the Interior
One seat is new and has no incumbent.
Beyond that I am going to be looking at four seats on the night of May 12th:
Esquimalt-Royal Roads
Peace River-North
Penticton
Vernon-Monashee
Lastly I was quite surprised to read in the Ipsos poll that more current Green party supporters were absolutely certain to vote 71% (tied with the Liberals), than NDP supporters at 67%.
And that when you added in “Most Likely” while Liberals moved ahead to 90%, the Green supporters were still ahead of the NDP…86% to 84%. I understand that 32% of those intending to vote Green could still change their minds, but so are 24% of NDP supporters questioning their choice too.
The Liberals only have 15% doubters, and so I think unlike PKelly this is still Campbells to lose and not very likely that Carole James will be Premier…though she may get closer in seats than votes.
I will also predict that Bill Bennett is going down to defeat in Kootenay-East, but so is Norm MacDonald going to be in nail biter in Columbia River-Revelstoke. It will either be Michelle Mungal or Josh Smienk in Nelson-Creston and that race could turn into a replay of 1986, depending on how high the Liberal vote is province wide. Thus the only safe seat in the Kootenays is Katrine Conroy in Kootenay-West.
High turnout can mean desire for change or fear of change. Look at the US in 2004. Pundits originally thought that the high turnout was bad news for Bush. They turned out to be people voting against the liberal from Massachusetts who was soft on terrorism, supportive of gay marriage etc. In 2001 and 2005 in BC, everyone knew the BC Liberals would win, but last time it ended up actually being close. This time the race appears slightly closer, so people may be turning out in greater numbers to keep the NDP out.
Total early voters:
2001: 113,133
2005: 205,656
So far…
2009: 216,100 (with one more day to go of early voting)
Sources:
http://www.elections.bc.ca/docs/stats/Advance-Voting-Turnout-2009.pdf
http://www.elections.bc.ca/docs/stats/Advance-Voting-Turnout.pdf
p kelly – please cut the BS artistry.
You don’t know what the Liberal’s internal poll is, because if you did you would post it.
And public polling shows a spread of 9 points. That ain’t close in any book.
Finally, advance voting shows that voting turnout will be down – you got it all wrong. Notwithstanding that more and more people are discovering the convenience of advanced voting.
Wrong on too many counts kelly – union desired nationalistic socialism (Mable Elmore anyone? Rafe Mair anyone?) will have to wait for another 4 years. And by then STV will mean that a Liberal-Green coalition of liberal free thinkers will deprive the lying demagogic Hugo Chavez/Islamist NDP from power – hopefully for a long time.
Wow! Glass, you are full of red-baiting rhetoric it makes my head spin.
The internal liberal poll was on the news…Global TV actually…not the numbers, just the comment that “..liberals internal polling indicates its even closer [than the ipsos-reid poll the report was based on]..”
Glass, how can you say that advance voting suggests turnout will be down when we have already beaten last election’s early voting with one more day of advance polls yet to go?
“union desired nationalistic socialism (Mable Elmore anyone? Rafe Mair anyone?)”…you know that the NDP isn’t the only party that has candidates that say boneheaded things – such as that virtually racist swipe that Bill Bennett took against Aboriginals in this campaign. And Raif Mair a socialist?! Come on! He’s a former Social Credit cabinet minster.
“lying demagogic Hugo Chavez/Islamist NDP”…seriously?! You go from accusing the NDP of trying to emulate some Marxist experiment going on in Venezuela, to being a Muslim fundamentalist ‘party’ all in the same sentance…either you are totally uneducated, or you get some sort of thrill by tossing insults out there…either way, it shows low credibility and high ignorance.
Now, I’ve disagreed with several pro-Liberals on this board – and done so on a respectful level…I dispute the policies; not the person.
It really lowers the quality of debate here (and its been really good here to be honest) with your insult laden diatribes.
Advance voters as % of registered voters (day 1, day 2, day 3, 3-day total):
2001 – 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 5.3%
2005 – 3.1% 2.5% 2.6% 8.2%
2009 – 2.8% 2.2% 2.3% 7.3%
p kelly – you are wrong. As Andy S. points out, as percentage of registered voters it is 8.2% in 2005, and 7.3% now.
Have you drank the koolaid yet? The supreme leader wants all good believers to drink!
Does anyone know why the number of registered voters has taken such a huge jump from 2005? 1,774,269 to 2,948,175
Koolaid? …sigh…
Fine, you can have your percentages if that convinces you…
To answer your question though…
Registered to vote in 2009 is 2,948,175…actually voted – we’ll see on Tuesday…
But the 1,774,269 from 2005 is the actual voting turnout…I don’t have the total who were registered for 2005 though…
Hello Kool-aid drinkers,
2,845,284 was the number of registered voters in 2005.
It really lowers the quality of debate here (and its been really good here to be honest) with your insult laden diatribes.
Uhhh — and who have I insulted? The NDP? The NDP is not a person. Get your categories correct and cut the BS artistry.
Pls. provide link to Global TV. Its hard to trust a koolaid drinker that denies facts such as the relative advance voters declining.
And maybe you should polish on your polisci? Remember all the lefties marching with the Islamists screaming “we are all Hezbollah now”? Where have you been in the past 20 years (since the fall of communism)? If you dont understand the link between leftwing fascism such as Hugo Chavez (buddy of Ahmadinejad) and rightwing religious fascism (Islamism), then go and read Mr. George Galloway or the lefty manifesto of his Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood friends.
The federal NDP now has Islamic and faith-based caucuses in Ottawa. Check them out.
Glass, how can you say that advance voting suggests turnout will be down when we have already beaten last election’s early voting with one more day of advance polls yet to go?
Now you seem to be lying. You never should compare absolute numbers (that is reserved for NDP liars such as Rafe Mair and Shane Simpson). Always compare unit numbers (percentages). You were proven wrong on Advanced voting.
Thanks for the correction kelly/Sacha. I stand corrected.
2005 3 day advanced turnout: 5.1%
2009 3 day advanced turnout: 7.3%
Based on degree of relative advanced voting (square weighted), and size of the riding (square root weighted), this is what I get for the top 15 ridings with large advanced turnout (incumbent party):
Saanich North and the Islands LIB
Comox Valley LIB
Parksville-Qualicum LIB
Boundary-Similkameen LIB
Kootenay East LIB
Cariboo-Chilcotin NDP
Surrey-White Rock LIB
Oak Bay-Gordon Head LIB
Cowichan Valley NDP
Fraser-Nicola NDP
Cariboo North NDP
Shuswap LIB
Penticton LIB
Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP
Esquimalt-Royal Roads NDP
6 NDP – 9 LIB
So what we derive from all of this is that there is not likely to be a low voter turnout……which everyone was saying would favor the BC Liberals if it occurred. So now it is not likely to occur, how can it still favor the BC Liberals to have a high voter turnout. That doesn’t make sense.
What is more likely is that if there is a higher voter turnout this time than last, it means there are more people motivated to vote and express themselves on something that is a concern to them about how things have been done by the current government.
The upshot of that is that the polling models are unlikely to be accurate. Pollsters spend a lot of their time focusing on history. When voters change their minds and do things that are “extraordinary”, the polls are unlikely to reflect it accurately or at all.
All of which suggests we are in for an interesting evening on Tuesday night…..
I’m not convinced there will be a really high voter turnout. People may just be more likely to use the advanced polls this time. Either because they are more aware of the convenience or they are getting more pressure to do so.
My apologies to pkelly for the error I made yesterday. I see I compared apples and oranges, because I did not notice Elections BC was using registered voters who voted for their 2001 and 2005 reporting of Advanced voting and overall number of registered voters in 2009.
To err is human.
Glass you missed one seat from your list:
Stikine at 11.7%, as compared to 7.9% for Bulkley Valley-Stikine in 2005 for all four days.
Other than that can we please keep the vitriol out of this discussion. As I have said elsewhere, it would make for better politics in BC if the “Liberals” showed more compassion for those who are less able to look after themselves and it would be really good if the NDP did not try to emulate the failed policies of British Labour Prime Minister, Harold Wilson like:
buying up Kootenay Forest Products, Ocean Falls and Panco Poultry in the 1970’s
buying Skeena Cellulose and building fast ferries in the 1990’s
Incidentally I also oppose bailing out the auto industry too.
I much prefer the Swedish model that gave out early retirement and retrained other workers and allowed capital to invest elsewhere rather than prop up the Swedish ship building industry when it could not compete with Japan.
A proper retraining program, jointly funded fed/prov program under EI, with a renewed apprenticeship program in BC would do much more than the current Job Opportunities Fund.
Andy – no worries on the numbers; i can see where anyone would get the two mixed up
I have to second MDB. I voted advanced for the first time ever, just because I happened to be at the polling station area and Tuesday is a bad day for me.
Over time, you should see all 5 days of voting to be equal in turnout, with a bias to the last day, as there are more polling stations. And Saturday is an easy day to vote too.
Andy is right on track. The socialist mode of production means graft, waste, and the abusive mixing of economic power (of the crown corporations) with political power.
Just look at the way COPE 378 is taking their $100,000 average salaries and benefits and funneling that into anti-Liberal advertisements and GOTV campaigns. Its odious how socialists have absolutely no ethics in using taxpayer money to influence the election and grab power against the interests of the very same taxpayer.