Mustel Group poll – BCL 47, NDP 38
Posted May 7, 2009 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Polls
Comments (5)
Mustel’s final poll on BC Election 2009 was conducted with 852 respondents, from April 29 to May 6th. This would unfortunately cover the time period of the debate. 8% of the voters (68 respondents) were undecided. The voter intention of this poll is:
BC Liberal – 47%
NDP – 38%
Green – 12%
Conservatives – 3%
On the STV Referendum, the intentions are:
First Past the Post – 43%
STV – 33%
No opinion – 24%
Details of the poll can be found here (Mustel Link, Local Copy).
Findings include:
The poll “discovered” that 84% of eligible voters intend on voting in this election, a number which I find very high as it would suggest that a good 20% of them at least are lying – or maybe they “intend” and will just never get around to it, which is more likely the case. There is no indication that this will be a high voter turnout election.
Not surprisingly, the economy was the core issue, according to those polled (33%).
The only real difference between this poll and the previous one is that Premier Gordon Campbell’s approval/disapproval numbers converted to 46% approve, 44% disapprove this poll; this was from 51% approve, 40% disapprove in the April poll. This could be statistical flux or it could be an indication that he was not doing himself too many favours this campaign on the personal charisma front. This is also reflected in the voter intention question – the BC Liberals got hit 5%, while the NDP gained 3%.
I would really like to see how the referendum question was asked before speculating on the result – the current poll results, if normalized, would be 57% NO, and 43% YES, which would be the opposite of the 2005 referendum result.
44% of the respondents approve of the Carbon tax; 41% do not; 15% are undecided.
If this is the 2009 election result, the BC Liberals should be happy – plugging this result in my paper napkin seat model, you would have a majority government of about 52-53 BC Liberal MLAs (43 required for a majority).
Now we have a new poll from Mustel, so we can measure some trends. In the last 2 weeks, the NDP cut the liberal lead in half. Although, I think the poll is still lacking in credibility if it shows the BC Liberals more favoured than the NDP on the environment.
Angus Reid is due out with a new poll soon.
The results of the STV poll make sense to me. Many of us who live in the “hinterland” who supported BC-STV originally are not enamoured with the large ridings in the Interior and the North. Mine in particular will be from close to the geographic centre of the province all the way to the US border with one dominant urban centre of about 100,000 on the edge.
So much for local representation!
It’s funny that New Democrats assume that a poll that shows the BC Liberals favoured to the NDP on the environment is inaccurate. They had a poor environmental record while in office. They just pay lip service to the environment. In the last election, it worked. This time, they oppose a carbon tax that has been endorsed by environmentalists such as David Suzuki and Andrew Weaver. Green Party candidates support the tax and have criticized the NDP for opposing it since the start of the election.
I hate to break it to you P Kelly, but the NDP is not entitled to support from environmental voters simply because it is left wing. Anyone who has paid attention this election understands why.
With all due respect Mike, the Liberals should rank last when it comes to being environmentally responsible; and voters know it.
There are 16 significant environmental groups in BC…13 have endorsed the BC NDP.
Yes, the NDP’s environmental record was not perfect when in office; but they did make progress…all of which the BC Liberals opposed.
The carbon tax issue has been debated to death on this forum and many others; but its only one item in a big-picture environmental agenda.
p kelly,
Show me the evidence that 13 of 16 environmental groups support the BCNDP.