Will wait for judicial recount results

Posted May 31, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: News

I will be waiting for the results of the judicial recounts before I post up final results and fancy maps. This also includes the definitive winners of the election predictions that were made.

On the government side, undoubtedly they are all looking at the fiscal situation and are going to announce something that most informed members of the public should have known on budget day – the government will be incurring a deficit much larger than the $495 million they projected. Given the economic variables we are seeing, it will likely be in the realm of $2 to $2.5 billion, assuming cuts in government expenditures.

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Voter turnout – the final numbers

Posted May 27, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Analysis

Elections BC has posted their voter turnout statistics, and it can be summarized with this PDF file which they have attached to a press release.

The percentage of eligible voters that voted is 50.99%, while the percentage of registered voters that voted was 56.01%. This is down from the 2005 election result of 58.19% and 62.36%, respectively.

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BC Election 2009 – Top 10 statistics

Posted May 27, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Analysis

Here are some “top 10″ statistics:

Closest 10 seats, by vote difference:

 
Closest 10 seats, by percentage difference:

 
Top 10 target seats for the 2013 election for the BC Liberals (by votes):

 
Top 10 target seats for the 2013 election for the NDP (by votes):

 
Top election propoganda for the BC Liberals’ 2013 campaign:
“Only 3,464 votes separated us from an NDP majority government!”
 

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Absentee ballot performance

Posted May 27, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Analysis

I have been looking at the numbers comparing initial count to final count. There were some addition errors that were made (resulting in the dramatic turnaround in Cariboo-Chilcotin), but assuming we take everything as-is, we have the following statistics:

Initial count vs. Final Count results, popular vote:
BC Liberals 37,915 (41.5%) – vs. 45.8%
NDP 40,478 (44.3%) – vs. 42.1%
Greens 9,601 (10.5%) – vs. 8.2%
Conservatives 1,814 (2.0%) – vs 2.1%
Others 1,608 (1.8%) – vs. 1.7%

If the seats in the legislature were chosen exclusively from absentee and special balloting (again, this assumes the final count is exclusively from absentee and special ballots), the legislature would be as follows:

NDP 47
BC Liberals 37
Independent 1

With these assumptions, the BC Liberals underperformed in absentee and special balloting, something I would have not expected. The NDP have outperformed and the Green party has especially outperformed – going from 8.2% to 10.5% is more impressive than 42.1% to 44.3%.

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Final count concluded

Posted May 27, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Analysis

Final count is concluded. From the initial count that was tabulated on May 22nd to final count as tabulated today, we have the following changes:

Seats:
BC Liberals 49 to 49
NDP 36 to 35
Independent 0 to 1

Popular Vote:
BC Liberals 46.1% to 45.8%
NDP 42.0% to 42.1%
Greens 8.1% to 8.2%
Conservatives 2.1% to 2.1%
Others 1.7% to 1.7%

Voter turnout:
52.5% of registered voters, not including absentee ballots, and not including election-day registrations;
55.6% of registered voters, including absentee ballots, and not including election-day registrations.

Vote differences, by riding, between initial count and final count:

Data obtained from Elections BC: Initial Count, Final Count.

Observe that the Delta South spread is higher than the 32 votes reported currently because the Independent vote count also includes the total of the other independent candidate, John Shavluk.

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Delta South Final Count concluded

Posted May 26, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Analysis

The final count for Delta South is concluded. Independent candidate Vicki Huntington has been declared elected with 9,977 votes, vs. Wally Oppal’s 9,945 votes, with a margin of 32 votes. This number implies that Huntington outperformed Oppal in the absentee ballots (a net margin of 19 votes on 918 absentee ballots) by about 2.07%; this is compared to her 1.41% outperformance of Val Roddick in 2005’s absentee ballot count.

There will be a mandatory judicial recount as the margin is within 1/500th of the votes cast in the electoral district; this would be 46 votes or less.

Still, a 32 vote margin is significant, and as such, it is very likely that a judicial recount will not change the result.

Factoring in the change in Cariboo-Chilcotin and Delta South, the seat count for the next BC Legislature is going to be:

BC Liberal 49
NDP 35
Independent 1

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Cariboo-Chilcotin final count

Posted May 26, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Analysis

Cariboo-Chilcotin has concluded its final count.

BC Liberal candidate (and now presumably MLA) Donna Barnett received 6,259 votes, defeating NDP incumbent MLA Charlie Wyse who had 6,171 votes. The vote difference was 88. This suggests that Barnett significantly outperformed Wyse (by 2.97%) in the absentee balloting, as she was up by 59 after the initial count was corrected. This was a significant shift from the previous election, where Wyse outperformed his BC Liberal competitor by nearly 5.5% in absentee ballots.

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Delta South status

Posted May 25, 2009 by Sacha Peter
Category: Analysis

At the end of May 25, Vicki Huntington is leading Wally Oppal by 14 votes. Apparently 550 absentee ballots remain to be counted, according to Kenn Faris at Elections BC.

If we assume that Oppal was up 3 votes after initial count, this suggests that Huntington was up 17 votes on about 368 votes, which would suggest a 4.6% edge of Huntington on Oppal. Extrapolating this will imply a 39 votes lead for Huntington after final count is concluded. If there is a 45 vote difference or less in the riding, there will be a mandatory judicial recount.

We will have to wait tomorrow for further results.

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