Looking at the “scrap the gas tax” backlash
Posted April 14, 2009 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Analysis, Economy, Environment, NDP
Comments (3)
The BC Liberals are firing the first shots in the yet-to-be-formalized election period, with respect to the NDP’s positioning on their declaration of scrapping the carbon tax.
Rather, it was the environmental lobby groups (most notably the David Suzuki Foundation) that went against the NDP for their stance on the carbon tax, but quite a few others piled in.
This policy decision was a very interesting choice for the NDP, and I generally think it will be a net positive for them, although whether it is a “small” or “large” net positive will remain to be seen in terms of how they perform in the rest of their campaign.
The reason is because people that are generally inclined toward the environment as single-issue voters are much more likely to vote Green than to vote for the NDP, and even less likely to vote for the BC Liberals. The simple election calculation is that the NDP already bled most of their environmental support in 2005, and likely did not stand to gain much by supporting a tax which polling indicated about half of British Columbia did not like. I have not seen a recent poll on the question of the carbon tax, however – this may have changed.
The NDP probably looked at the federal election results in British Columbia and judged the carbon tax and its impact (weighed against the fact that the Liberal Party was running a weak leader in Stephane Dion). The real question is – how many “single issue” voters are there with the carbon tax, and how many “multi-issue” voters are there that would be tipped with the promise of getting rid of the carbon tax?
Most people (except the media) generally tune out what the environmental groups have to say as the alarm bells have been rung too many times to be effective; the only news is that the apparent perception that the environmental groups were solid support for the NDP has been confirmed, but this is just revealing something that has been the case for awhile.
One negative aspect of this tactical choice by the NDP is that the government gives out a $100 cheque for anybody making less than $30,000 income a year (or $35,000 joint income if you are married; which is really a penalty on marriage). The BC Liberals will argue this. This is a rational argument, but the opponents of the carbon tax have made it beyond numbers, and have been quite successful at that.
Lower gasoline prices have also mitigated the problem somewhat for the BC Liberals; they will not be nearly as fortunate in 2013 when it is very likely that fuel prices will be much, much higher (here’s a hint for everybody – you may wish to hedge your price on energy consumption by looking into investing in some oil and gas companies).
In general, the government would have saved themselves a lot of pain had they just increased the motor fuel tax by 2.4 cents a litre and phased in subsequent increases in future years. This would not cover natural gas, coal, etc., but this could have been worked around.
The NDP, as an alternative, have been proponents of cap-and-trade, which is a less transparent system of greenhouse gas emission taxation, although public perception is generally not aware of this. What is odd, however, is that the government has already enacted a form of cap-and-trade, via Bill 18 (2008), the Greenhouse Gas Reduction (Cap and Trade) Act.
Finally, something powerful is the effect on ordinary voters, opposed to special interest groups, when they do the mental comparisons – if the NDP made the ballot question “Do you want to scrap the carbon tax?” it may be highly effective for them in the very swingy interior regions (e.g. the Cariboo).
It’s time for real leadership in this province. Gordon Campbell had 8 years to deliver his B.S. PROMISES for health care. Now is not the time to B.S. British Columbians in 2009. It’s time to vote Carol James. One whom we can all confide in, and trust. Working for the people and with the people.
Not the corporations. Gordon Campbell can’t even pronounce the words
British Columbia when he talks trying to sound smart and all.
I am not sure what sparrouty’s comment has to do with the Carbon Tax but I am happy to use it as a segue as I do believe that the BC Liberals have shown real leadership by “bravely going where no politician has gone before” (apologies to Star Trek) by taking the politically negative but morally correct stand of introducing a Carbon Tax.
I am not a single interest voter but I am very concerned about global warming and believe that action must be taken. On a per capita basis Canada is the worse producer of greenhouse gas emissions in the G7 and the G20. While it is clear that Canada alone cannot fix the problem, if we wish to have any moral authority to argue for immediate action from others we must “clean up our act” first.
While no one likes to pay more for things a “Carbon Tax” is considered by Environmental Economists to be the most effective way to modify consumer behaviour and thus reduce greenhouse gas emissions. One of the ways that it is superior to a “Cap and Trade” approach is that its effects and economic distortions that result can be much more easily identified and addressed i.e. if food prices are being impacted we can provide rebates to farmers and transport firms moving produce.
The time has come when the BC electorate needs to weigh the benefits to us all against a modest pain for the individual.
Carole James looks like a complete opportunist right about now, particularly when you look at her past comments about climate change:
“I can’t promise you that, if I were premier, reducing greenhouse gases won’t cost you. It will.” – Carole James, Sun, Feb. 28/07
http://www.votesmartbc.com
So there you go…principles be damned…the NDP will say anything to get elected.