Boundary-Similkameen Analysis
Posted March 17, 2009 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Analysis
Comments (17)
Bernard’s been writing some very good material lately – if you’re not reading him, give his site a lookup.
One of his latest postings was reflecting upon a post from the Public Eye about Boundary-Similkameen. This riding was radically redesigned from three ridings in the previous election – the western part is Yale-Lillooet, the central part is Penticton-Okanagan Valley and the eastern part is West Kootenay-Boundary. These three slices now form Boundary-Similkameen. The vote count, assuming that people in 2005 voted exactly as they did in 2009 would be approximately 46% BC Liberal and 41% NDP.
Of note is that formerly nominated BC Liberal candidate Joe Cardoso was removed by the party and now apparently he will be running for the BC Conservatives in the same riding. It is unlikely that the BC Conservatives could win the seat, but he is very likely to play the role of spoiler in the election.
The two maps illustrate Boundary-Similkameen in relation to the 2009 Electoral Boundaries (Red) and the 2005 Electoral Boundaries (Blue) and note that the area outside the 2009 Boundary-Similkameen riding is shaded in gray (Click for a higher resolution image):
When we overlay poll mappings by partisan leanings (i.e. which party received the most votes per poll), we have the following map:
Voting fractions are roughly the following along the major population centres:
Osoyoos – BCL 2:1 to NDP (2007 population: 4,963)
Oliver – BCL 7:5 to NDP (2006 population: 4,370)
Grand Forks – NDP 7:4 to BCL (2006 population: 4,036)
Keremeos – BCL 6:5 to NDP (2006 population: 1,289)
The other notable geographical feature lies along the Highway 97 corridor (between Osoyoos and Penticton) – the polls in and around this area are strongly BC Liberal (roughly to the ratio of 3:2), especially along the southern shore of Lake Skaha. Whether these people will be gravitating away from the BC Liberals to the Conservatives will remain to be seen in the election. Of note is that Cardoso is a resident of Oliver, while the BC Liberal candidate, John Slater, former Mayor of Osoyoos – who won in 2005 with 40% of the vote.
The NDP have yet to nominate a candidate, which is likely going to compromise their chances in this riding, which could have been winnable for them (and with the right candidate, could be winnable).
Strangely enough, I surfed over to the BCCP website yesterday and also saw Cardoso’s name as their candidate for this riding. One of the Lib candidates in Kelowna Mission also stepped out and is now the BCCP candidate.
The last time the BC PC’s had any real/perceived impact/spotlight upon a BC election was under leader Vic Stephens in 1979 when they had almost(?) a full slate and garnered around 5% of the vote. The Socreds still won over the NDP 48% – 46% (the NDP’s all-time high-water mark).
Whether the PC’s have any impact this time around still remains to be seen.
BTW, the Boundary-Similkameen riding at the south/west ends of Lake Okanagan includes Okanagan Falls and Kaleden, with a combined population of 6,005 (a surprising figure).
While the Boundary and Similkameen ends of the riding have stable/declining populations, the south Okanagan Valley continues to grow with a dearth of Albertan retirees.
BTW, IIRC, the large orange coloured areas in the Similkameen and the Okanagan are mostly sparsely populated First Nations reserves.
I think you meant the south/west end of Skaha lake – Lake Okanagan is north of Penticton.
Okanagan Falls and Kaleden aren’t incorporated, which is why I didn’t include them in the above post, but you are correct – there are a lot of people living in that corridor (close to Highway 97). Lots of orchids next to the lake, and great cherry/fruit picking when you hit it at the right week of the year.
You are also right that Osooyos and the valley area has had a huge population influx, which would likely trend BC Liberal, but there’d be a few Conservatives there that would have likely voted BCL otherwise.
The First Nation reserves are a slightly different colour on the map – east of Oliver and south of Keremeos you can see them on the map, and along Highway 3. Lesser so on the eastern side of the riding. The First Nations vote this election is going to be very interesting to see if Campbell’s strategy is going to bear electoral fruit.
Oooppps… yeah, Skaha Lake… not Lake Okanagan, my bad. :)
BTW, just love the colour-coded electoral maps that you create on this site. Thanks!!!
using 2005 numbers transposed to 2009 boundaries is pointless except for some partisan bickering. It might be that using 2005 results would turn this 2009 seat into a BC Liberal gain, but the issues in 2009 are far different than 2005. The economy is crashing, the BC Liberals are dealing with some very explosive political issues such as the bombshells coming from the BC Rail trial, and mind-blowing costs overruns at the Olympics. These didn’t exist in 2005 (or to a very low degree) and could turn what looks like a swing Liberal seat into a blowout for the NDP.
I mean, who really knows how angry voters are out here; we’ll get a better guage on that with some polls that are due any day now.
Transposing 2005 results over 2009 is not pointless; it makes for a good starting guide. It also tells us that the riding is close, although it somewhat favours the BC Liberals – if there is a local issue and/or candidate that is affecting the area I hope people would chime in.
Issues dealing with the BC Liberals/NDP provincially will have a provincial effect, although implementing policies that are specific to this region in the province would have more of an impact locally.
I do believe that the political parties use the same method as Sacha.
Ok, so its not entirely pointless to transpose to make assumptions, but in certain circumstances, its really difficult to make those assumptions because the whole political landscape has shifted.
Regardless of viewpoints here, this is the NDP’s election to win…all the stars have aligned for them to sweep to power. The Liberals have mishandled the Olympics, they’ve tabled their own fudge-it-budget, they’re arrogant and out of touch, they’ve got their own corruption/friends-insiders problems, and have a legacy of closing hospitals and schools.
In 2005 however, voters had only had the liberals in for one term and could reasonably accepted the rationale that they had to do what was necessary to get the economy going in BC. Well this is 2009, and the economic boom bypassed certain parts of the province, and certain sectors too and they’re feeling ripped off and bitter at the BC Liberals.
These voters might have voted Liberal out of anger in 2001, might have elected them again in 2005 with the hope that now we’ve endured the cuts – let the good times roll, but in 2009 – some are disillusioned and had enough with the liberals.
Native land claims issues have cropped up on the horizon, and the Liberals handling of it has irked the social conservatives that have been a base of support in the interior (in seats like this).
What my point really is that despite the fact that a transpose shows the liberals winning this seat by 5 points, its not nearly accurate because the political landscape has changed. Some seats are predictable – Vancouver-Hastings will vote NDP, just as Vancouver-Quilchena will vote Liberal…but some of these other marginal seats are just too unpredictable this time…kinda what makes BC politics exciting! …in a sick way
Fun little bit of trivia: (okay, it may not meet most people’s definition’s of “fun”): the 2009 Boundary-Similkameen electoral district is geographically identical to the 1991-2001 Okanagan-Boundary electoral district. Weird to see ridings vanish and then get recreated exactly again.
Re:p kelly
You are right. The days of blind loyalty to the same party each election are
as old as the cold war. People with mortgages wont all vote liberal and those
that rent wont all be for the ndp. I know many married couples that opt for
different candidates.
I find good, honest people in all parties and this is how democracy will
survive. Change is healthy. People drop out and lose respect when they
see their voice ignored by governments that win without those votes.
The last provincial election in Alberta saw a pathetic turnout of 46-47%.
As of this morning, I’ve been unable to find an official list of BC Conservative candidates that includes Joe Cardoso. This was posted on BC Iconoclast earlier:
Interesting Thing in the Boundary Similkameen Riding
Joe Cardoso was recently the BC Liberal candidate in the riding of Boundary Similkameen. He had his nomination withdrawn because he neglected to fill out all the details on the form.
I noticed earlier today that the BC Conservatives had Joe Cardoso as a candidate in Boundary Similkameen. I passed this on to Sean Holman and he looked into it. The BC Conservatives have now removed his name from their site.
Sure enough, I did finally locate the Conservative list of 8 candidates running in the May 12th election and Joe Cardoso’s name is not among them. Can anyone confirm that Joe is, indeed, a confirmed Conservative candidate?
He was announced as the candidate on Friday morning… he was on the site but they took him off the list. There was also an article in the Penticton newspaper about him being the candidate. Apparently the BCCP is a waste receptacle for the Liberals.
Local community TV had Joe announced on Thursday night – in fact, the tape of it ran relentlessly of the unveiling at a local restaurant. The Western also had an article on Friday. Perhaps the BCCP isn’t quite so keen despite the glowing remarks of Wilf Hanni…………………….
The easier explanation is that the BC Conservative party desperately needs somebody with the skill to maintain a website. Their site is horrible.
I agree wholeheartedly. The list of candidates (current or otherwise) isn’t linked to the BCCP website. You either know the url or you have to get to it via a website like Iconoclast.
The BC Conservatives will take 4 seats in the provincial election,with Boundary-Simmilkameen being one of them. The Liberals have moved to the left where it is hard to tell the difference between them and the NDP.
There are eight names on the official BCCP candidate list none of whom are from Boundary Similkameen as of 11:00 this evening.