Internal polling showing NDP up 9?
Posted February 12, 2009 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Polls
Comments (4)
Bill Tieleman is reporting that internal BC Liberal polling shows that they are down 9% compared to the NDP, according to his “very reliable source”.
If this is true, then the following line of questioning/reasoning applies:
0. When was the date the poll was commissioned?
1. This would be worse for the BC Liberals than the November 11 poll from Angus Reid which showed BC Liberals 39, NDP 44.
2. What issue has the NDP gained traction on? Possibilities include the theme of “arrogance”, handling of spending portfolios (mainly the Olympics, but there are other peripheral issues as well, including the downtown convention centre), the gateway project, crime/gangs, or even the carbon tax?
3. What is the Green party polling in this survey?
Lots of questions. If this poll turns out to be true, then it means we are seeing the most volatile polling in the province I have ever witnessed, and the BC Liberals are in a lot of trouble at exactly the wrong time. The NDP up 9% would result in a NDP victory of about 60 seats to 25, just using a paper napkin calculation.
(Update: Tieleman updates with a comment:
Thanks for the comments as always – now a few of my own.
I have not seen the BC Liberal polling – it’s been reported to me by someone else, so I can’t tell you any of the specific details.
I suspect, however, that it is provincial polling with significant enough regional breakdowns to draw some conclusions.
For example, I very much doubt that there is a large sample size in Surrey-Cloverdale but there might be enough of a Surrey area sample to suggest that all ridings, including Falcon’s, face a tough go.
I’d be the first to say it would be shocking if Falcon were in jeopardy of losing one of the safest Liberal seats – but I’m only reporting what I heard – that the poll showed a close fight.
Kamloops is the bellwether riding for over 50 years – no party has won and election without taking Kamloops.
The Mustel poll was one of several that showed pretty different results, leading me and others to conclude there is a lot of volatility in the electorate right now.
That’s not too surprising given the economic climate, Olympic costs and other factors making voters nervous and unsure of their choices.
The NDP vote IS efficient – it’s one reason why they won a very large majority in 1991 with 40% of the vote and a narrow majority with 39% in 1996 – when the Liberals actually had a higher percentage but less seats.
Racking up huge margins in Richmond or Vancouver-Quilchena but losing by a few hundred in swing ridings isn’t helpful for the BC Liberals.
I don’t see the percentage in the BC Liberals leaking this to me or anyone else to “motivate” their troops – it would be a very dangerous ploy that could backfire and demoralize them instead.
Lastly, very funny comment on the Vote Smart BC ads on TV!)
I should point out that I consider this information to be highly suspect, but there wasn’t anything except passage of Bill 48 in the legislature to talk about today.
Yeah, I also saw Tieleman’s blog post earlier this evening. I’m always suspicious of hearsay, esp. from this particular source. And Tieleman contradicted himself between his initial post and his subsequent comment.
Firstly, Mustel and Ipsos have a long track record in BC public opinion over the past roughly 15 years and they typically not only mirror each others results (mostly), but have also been very close to actual election results. Never been much volatility there during that time frame.
That’s where I have always focused my attention.
The new kid on the block, ARS, has had some out-lier results and were very out of whack in their Saskatchewan federal election results.
ARS reminds me of Strategic Counsel, which published a BC opinion poll just prior to the 2005 election, which also seemed out of whack in favour of the Libs. For that matter, SC’s national poll this week showed the Greens in first place in Quebec in their sub-sample for the province.
Roughly two weeks ago, Mustel showed a 14% spread in favour of the Libs, while Teileman’s hearsay shows a 23% turnaround during that same time frame. Unbelievable.
If one takes Tieleman’s here-say and ARS out of the equation, both Mustel as well as Ipsos show continuity, not volatility in, their results. And they are the standard bearers in BC politics. FWIW, I understand that Ipsos will have another poll mid-Feb (early next week) or mid-March.
ARS is the new kid on the block? Hardly…
Best in Canada, October 2008 (and closest in BC than the two other competitors)
http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2008.10.15_Election.pdf
Best in Quebec, December 2008
http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2008.12.09_QuebecElection.pdf
Five other provincial elections called within the margin of error
http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/ARS.ARF.WP.pdf
Learn about the predictions, before you draw ill-timed conclusions.
Mustel and Ipsos have been polling BC quarterly for roughly 15 years. They have a track record. ARS has only released two opinion polls and that was only during the past 5 months. ARS, using on-line panels, had the most out of tilt polling results (out of 4 pollsters) in the last Alberta provincial election.
Again, just prior to the last Saskatchewan federal election, ARS published an 800 sample size poll of the province:
CPC – 40% (Actual election result – 54%)
NDP – 35% (26%)
Lib – 17% (15%)
Green 7% (6%)
The difference between the ARS spread (5%) to the actual election result spread (28%) shows that ARS does have some problems in calibrating some of their provincial on-line panels.
http://www.newstalk650.com/files/news-talk-angus-reid-federal-election-poll-oct-10.pdf
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/map/2008/#
Even last November, ARS polling results in BC were the outlier compared to Mustel and Ipsos released during the same time frame.