Mustel has BC Liberals way ahead
Posted January 19, 2009 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Polls
Comments (7)
Mustel released a poll today (link to their copy, local copy) indicating that the BC Liberals are significantly ahead of the NDP.
750 people were polled from January 8 to 15, 14% undecided.
BC Liberals: 47%
NDP: 33%
Green: 16%
Notable is Premier Gordon Campbell’s approval/disapproval rating better this poll than any Mustel poll in the last two years; Carole James is still at a mid-range level relative to the last two years.
The economy continues to be the #1 issue, overshadowing nearly everything.
I am not quite sure what happened between last November’s Mustel Poll vs. this one to cause such a swing.
If this polling is reflective of public sentiment, however, then the BC Liberals are in for an easy victory come May 12, 2009.
I will update the poll charts later tonight.
That’s a bit of a shocker. I expected something of around a 5% Liberal lead. But it’s the ***economy*** driving these figures. And if you look at the December, 2004 Mustel poll, the Liberals were behind the NDP by 3% leading into May, 2005.
A definite shift in tone, and not that surprising when you think of the shifting sands. Campbell had a solid showing through the late fall with his economic plan and a real leadership edge through December and the federal coalition debacle. I disagree with those who see the Olympic issues as a liability — I think those who are against have long been counted in that dissenting percentage, and that the majority of people are not taking that issue to the ballot.
Meanwhile, you have a floundering Opposition that lurches from issue to issue, no consistency of approach and no branding for their leader. And let’s not forget their wildly unpopular alliance with the Jack Layton NDP during the federal crisis (what ever happened to that guy?). Combine with a total lack of economic credibility at a time when its the highest polling issue, and I’d say May is shaping up in a positive way.
I bet many in the NDP are wishing they had taken the opportunity to remove Carole James from the leadership when they had the chance. Campbell has a net +13 on approval, while James brings in a dismal +7. The battle of Campbell v. James is pretty much over and the Premier has won the day and will win a comfortable majority in May. The real interesting battle will be in 2013, when both parties are post their current leaders. I suspect Kevin Falcon will be leading the Liberal party. The NDP’s next leader remains a mystery, but if the party is serious about wanting to actually win an election it will be Mike Farnworth.
Interesting debate, people. Keep it up.
I would think there are some other factors involved other than the “economy” since the economy was still an issue in the previous poll.
HM, before the 2005 election, I thought Carole James was going to find an excuse to step down (as party leader, not MLA) in 2007, but apparently not. I will be writing about this in the future.
“I would think there are some other factors involved other than the “economy” since the economy was still an issue in the previous poll.”
Understand what you are saying, but here’s my hypothesis:
Typically, immediate top-of-mind issues for voters takes time to become reflected in voter preferences.
The June 26, 2008 Mustel had the finding that fuel prices was the issue of top concern, yet the Libs still had a 10 point lead over the NDP. Gas prices later peaked ~July 1 at around $1.50/litre, the same time when the carbon tax was introduced. Most people I know either do not like or understand the carbon tax.
And thereafter the NDP effectively pinned the Libs with the increase in gas prices with the carbon tax. And the Libs wore it esp. with many rural/exurban/suburban voters
While the next Mustel poll on November 26, 2008 showed that the economy had now become the foremost issue, the Libs only led the NDP by a 2% margin. Likely still due to the resonating residue of the NDP’s effective Axe the Tax campaign and the new prevailing “economy” issue not yet kicking in to reflect voter preferences. That Mustel poll stated that interior BC residents were the subset shifting away from the Libs.
And now, ~ two months later, the economy still remains the number one issue. On the surface at least, it appears that political party preferences shift with that top identified issue much time after the fact.
Just my two cents. :)
If you believe the bounce for the Liberals is because of the economy, and this has been a delayed bounce, then there will likely be a delayed bounce for the NDP because of the Olympics as more problems surface.
Good political strategists will need additional polls to confirm Mustel’s data. Not to rain on anyone’s parade but one poll in Jan., prior to the budget and MLA’s returning to Victoria can’t predict how the May election will end.
What appears clear, from this and other surveys is the economy/jobs issue will dominate. In fact you don’t need a poll to get this….everywhere people are talking about this issue. How the Olympics funding problems play out is yet to be seen….I suspect Campbell knows of growing concern not from the usual protesters, but among games supporters and from fiscal conservatives.
Personally, I’d agree with earlier comments that the Premier is ahead with potential to gain seats. But his lead is soft. It includes people who might be lured to another party; or worse: stay home on election day.
Politicians should diligently use campaigns to earn public office. Elections where combatants on either side stand a chance to succeed engages more people and reminds those in government of the limits to power.