Analysis of Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Posted January 11, 2009 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Analysis
Comments (2)
East of the Pitt River Bridge, north of the Fraser River, and west of Kent were two ridings – Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge-Mission. This has now been split into three ridings – Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge-Mission and Mission-Abbotsford.
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (abbreviated as “MRPM” in the future) will be a battleground riding in the upcoming election. It went to the NDP by a factor of 46% to 43% (not factoring in minor vote counting discrepancies).
There were electoral boundary changes, where MRPM lost a bit of its southeast corner, and gained a bit of the very light density northeast section. Attached is a map illustrating this – note that the red outline is the 2009 electoral boundaries, while the blue line is the 2005 electoral boundaries.
The voter distribution in MRPM can generally be described by the Pitt Meadows side being more likely to vote BC Liberal, while the Maple Ridge side is heavily tilted toward the NDP. In addition, the Katzie First Nation poll voted 41 NDP, 1 BC Liberal.
Visually, one can see a good chunk of Maple Ridge being taken away from the riding, and some rural area (BC Liberal friendly) being added to the riding. When one does the math on what the riding will look like, had the people in 2005 voted identically as they did in 2009, we get the following results:
NDP: 45.4% (-1.0%)
BC Liberal: 43.4% (+0.7%)
Green: 7.4% (+0.0%)
The electoral boundary change made the race a tighter win for the NDP if they wish to hold the seat. When you couple together the internal changes to the riding (an example of such is the influx of people purchasing new housing to avoid the more expensive Vancouver area, whom typically would vote more BC Liberal than NDP) it means that both political parties are going to be pouring significant amounts of resources in this area to try to win the seat.
Excellent maps as usual. The riding is also the beneficiary of two major highway projects, namely the new Pitt River Bridge with an ultimate 8-lane cross-section and the 6-lane Golden Ears Bridge connecting Langley and Surrey.
Probably the primary predicator of the riding’s winner will be the spread between the Liberals and NDP in the polls just prior to the 2009 election.
These projects were certainly needed. My company has many clients in the area and gridlock is a chronic problem. The liberals will benefit from some greatful commuters as long as tolls don’t become an issue. If polls are close this illustrates how fixing local issues is smart politics.