Angus Reid poll shows NDP ahead by 5%
Posted November 16, 2008 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Polls
Comments (8)
A poll released on November 15 (Local Copy, Angus Reid Copy) that surveyed 802 people from November 6 to November 11 show the NDP is ahead 44% to the BC Liberals’ 39%. This is consistent with their previous surveying – the previous survey showing a 3% spread (August 25, 2008) vs. the current 5% spread (November 11, 2008).
The primary difference between the two polls is that the NDP have gained a slight amount of extra support in the seat-rich GVRD region.
The one positive point in the survey for the BC Liberals’ was a minor improvement for Gordon Campbell’s numbers in some of the qualities and characteristics that is polled of the party leaders.
The survey results are certainly not the best for the BC Liberals, although there are six months left until election day. An examination of the polling leading up to the 2005 election showed a similar trend, so the NDP cannot rest on their laurels at this point.
It is unknown how much of this result is as a result of “by-election momentum” (if such can exist from a record-low voter turnout election), or how much of this was induced by Gregor Robertson’s Vision Vancouver victory. My own suspicion would suggest that nothing has changed provincially over the past two months – the NDP and BC Liberals are likely neck and neck – each party with its respective support for different reasons.
It is clear one big issue will be the carbon tax, but how the NDP attempt to leverage this without costing themselves their own base will be an interesting question – something that will inevitably play out in upcoming months.
Attached are two charts – the 2009 polls up to date, and the 2005 and 2009 polls that show polling information counted by days to the election.
I’m still reluctant to place much credence into the online panel polls of Angus Reid, who don’t have a track record in BC political opinion polls.
For that matter, unfortunately Mustel and Ipsos haven’t released anything since June.
And here’s some anecdotal evidence why these ARS polls might be off the mark.
Yesterday, the Vancouver Sun sponsored an exit poll (in conjunction with SFU) for the Vancouver mayoral race.
That exit poll had a huge sample size for the city of Vancouver – 843 with a margin of error of 4%.
While Gregor Robertson and Vision Vancouver handily won the mayors chair/council, the exit poll had this stunning observation:
Provincial Party Preference:
Liberal – 41%
NDP – 40%
Green – 11%
Other – 8%
To top it off, voter turnout dropped in 12 polling districts on Vancouver’s westside won by Ladner, but voter turnout increased in 10 polling districts in Vancouver’s north/eastside won by Robertson.
To the point, with an 843 sample size the Liberals lead/are tied in the City of Vancouver, which has always been the NDP’s core strength within the GVRD.
Even Mustel’s last poll released in June made this observation:
“The BC Liberals continue to be most popular in Greater
Vancouver suburbs whereas the NDP tends to be strongest in the City of Vancouver.”
http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20080626.pdf
The foregoing anecdotal evidence totally contradicts the ARS poll that shows the NDP leading in the GVRD by a margin of 46% to 41%.
I guess we’ll see when Mustel and Ipsos release their next figures.
To put that Vancouver Sun exit poll into further perspective, 30% of Liberal supporters and 71% of Green supporters voted for Robertson and Vision Vancouver.
Angus Reid called the last Federal election more accurately than the other pollsters (much to my surprise as well). It remains to be seen whether they are on-track provincially or not, I am still waiting for the Mustel results (and any other agencies that may be out there).
What makes these results even more dangerous for the BC Liberals is that it may possibly put a seat like Vancouver-False Creek in play.
I’m not going to put a lot of stock in exit polls, nor polls by a single agency. But if Mustel/Ipsos comes up with similar results, then that will say something.
Finally, there’s some post-game analysis to be done with respect to the Vancouver results, there is more to come by months’ end with more pretty maps coming up!
Sasha, just prior to federal election day, Angus Reid released an 800 sample size poll on federal voting intentions in Saskatchewan. Here are the poll results compared with actual results:
CPC – 40% (53.7%)
NDP – 35% (25.6%)
Liberal – 17% (14.9%)
That 5% poll spread actually turned out to be a 28% spread a few days later.
Anyway, Global News released the results tonight of the latest Ipsos BC poll:
Liberal – 44%
NDP – 35%
Green – 16%
The 5% NDP spread in the Angus Reid poll is reversed by a 9% Liberal spread in this Ipsos poll.
That’s a 14% spread differential between Angus Reid and Ipsos. I guess my reluctance to have faith in on-line panel polls such as Angus Reid was well founded.
It’s also important to note that both Mustel and Ipsos have virtually mirrored each others results over the past decade.
Hi BJ,
Is the 44/35/16 poll available over the internet? I tried looking for it, but couldn’t find anything.
If Ipsos is polling 44/35/16 and ARS is polling 39/44/11, that’s obviously a huge difference and can only be reconciled by determining which polling agency is wrong (or both of them!).
The last non-ARS poll was Mustel in June and they had 47/37/14. I’d really like some other data coming in here.
As for the SK results of ARS, yup, that certainly looks like there was some sampling error there. They didn’t break down geographically their last federal poll.
Sasha, typically when Ipsos results are released by Global News they would be posted much later tonight through the various newspaper outlets (Google – News). Ipsos would then release the entire poll tomorrow on their website.
Both Mustel and Ipsos have not released opinion polls since June and both have been polling BC for over a decade and have their track records (unlike ARS, which has only been publicly on-line polling since August, 2008).
Mustel: (June)
Liberal – 47%
NDP – 37%
Green – 14%
Ipsos: (June)
Liberal – 47%
NDP – 33%
Green – 16%
Unlike Mustel, Ipsos provides a list of parties to choose from. That’s why with that prompting the Greens tend to be higher in Ipsos polls. But the spreads have historically been relatively close between Mustel and Ipsos.
One final note about Mustel from Vaughn Palmer today:
“How then to choose between a poll that puts the government comfortably ahead of the Opposition and one that has it behind?
One could simply wait for the next poll. The Mustel Group, the other longtime player on the provincial polling scene, is in the field this week, expecting to release its findings early next week.”
In the 2008 federal election, Angus Reid offered the best prediction in Canada, which came closer to the actual result than the numbers of seven other pollsters.
http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2008.10.15_Election.pdf
And in BC, Angus Reid was one point away from the actual results for both Tories and Grits. Both Ipsos and Mustel were off the mark.
BC Numbers – Federal Election 2008
Party Actual Angus Reid Ipsos Mustel
Con. 44.4% 45% 39% 39%
NDP 26.1% 27% 25% 25%
Lib. 19.3% 21% 24% 24%
Grn. 9.4% 7% 11% 12%