2008 By-Election Final Results
Posted November 12, 2008 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: News
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The final count for the 2008 provincial by-elections are slightly different than the preliminary count given on election day. I am guessing this includes the advanced polling results. The NDP performed slightly better, while the BC Conservatives performed slightly worse compared to the preliminary results.
Vancouver-Burrard:
Herbert (NDP) 7,002 – 50.7% – Elected
Griffiths (BCL) 5,100 – 36.9%
Read (GRN) 742 – 5.3%
McLeod (BCC) 590 – 4.3%
Emery, M (BCM) 379 – 2.7%
Estimated Turnout: 23.5%
Vancouver-Fairview:
McGinn (NDP) 5,754 – 47.0% – Elected
MacDiarmid (BCL) 4,933 – 40.3%
Sterk (GRN) 900 – 7.4%
Hanni (BCC) 496 – 4.1%
Emery, J (BCM) 166 – 1.4%
Estimated Turnout: 27.3%
Predictions Made and Commentary
NDP to take Vancouver-Burrard – Successful – This really wasn’t in question. Herbert will easily take Vancouver-West End in the following 2009 election.
BC Liberals to take Vancouver-Fairview – Failed – I was surprised at the NDP’s relatively good performance in this riding, one would have thought that the BC Liberals’ candidate would have had more local credibility with her medical association. Vancouver-Fairview is right in the middle of “medical alley”, near the Cambie and 12th area. Perhaps the Canada Line construction fiasco cost the BC Liberals points locally in this area. McGinn will be in for a fight in 2009, as when the other 30% of the riding shows up to vote it won’t be nearly as positive for the NDP. Still, she can take good comfort in knowing that she did better than Gregor Robertson in 2005.
Vancouver-Burrard voter turnout 25%, Vancouver-Fairview voter turnout 30% – Successful – I’ll consider this close enough to be a successful prediction. Voter turnout was pathetically low, but this could be easily anticipated. It also tells you that the number of die-hard political junkies in each riding that will vote for anything is probably a constant number.