Mustel confirms no provincial polling
Posted September 9, 2008 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Polls
Comments (2)
Mustel confirmed that there will be no provincial polling until well after the Federal elections are over – which means to confirm the last Angus Reid poll (showing the NDP up 41% to the BC Liberals’ 38%) we will have to wait in suspense for one, and possibly two election campaigns.
As for the Angus Reid Strategies poll:
“…. the Angus Reid Strategies online opinion survey.
Nobody is taking the horse race numbers in that survey too seriously.
Even the New Democrats, who were purportedly given a three-point lead by respondents.”
http://www.canada.com/victoriatimescolonist/news/comment/story.html?id=60164eb1-936e-42bb-aa86-2747344da057&p=2
Nevertheless, Kyle Braid, the local pollster for Ipsos confirmed through the televised media a couple of weeks back, that Ipsos will release their usual quarterly BC provincial party preference survey in September.
I expect that to be within the next two weeks and Ipsos has typically mirrored Mustel’s results within a few percentage points.
Just in case you missed it, Mustel came out today with their first poll since June.
Liberal – 44%
NDP – 42%
Green – 12%
http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20081125.pdf
The ARS poll showed the NDP ahead by 5%, Mustel adds another 7% to show the Liberals ahead by 2%, and Ipsos adds another 7% to show the Liberals ahead by 9%.
Mustel is right in the middle.
This is the largest divergence between Mustel and Ipsos that I can recall – 7%. Typically, both pollsters are much closer in their results.
Perhaps Vaughn Palmer had it right the other day on Voice of BC when, based upon information provided to him by both the NDP and Liberals, he figures the Liberal are ahead by 5% – 6%, which is the median between Mustel and Ipsos.