Vancouver-Fairview by-election candidates
Posted August 22, 2008 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: By-Election
Comments (2)
Apparently the NDP are going to be announcing Jenn McGinn, a former COPE parks board candidate as their preferred candidate for Vancouver-Fairview. She placed 12th in the 2005 municipal election.
The BC Liberals have Margaret MacDiarmid, board member of the British Columbia Medical Association, apparently favoured by Colin Hansen. The BC Liberals also have running for the same nomination Rick Peterson, whom had a career as a hockey player in Europe, and now is investing in early stage companies.
I kinda think that the NDP goofed big time in selecting not only a no name candidate, but a candidate on the left-wing half of the party.
And that’s particularly important in a swing riding like Vancouver Fairview where 5% – 10% of the middle-of the road voters will ultimately decide its political fate.
That’s why Robertson was able to take the seat in 2005 with his centrist credentials. Jenn McGinn reminds me a bit of the left-wing candidate that the NDP ran in 2001 against Farrell Collins, Anita Romaniuk, who BTW just placed ahead of McGinn in the 2005 Vancouver Parks Board elections also as a COPE candidate.
The NDP has always ran moderate centrists in close ridings during by-elections, eg.
1. Howard Dack, small “l” liberal Kamloops councillor during the May, 1981 Kamloops by-election to replace rafe Mair, but the SC’s Claude Richmond won.
2. Lyle MacWilliam, small “l” liberal who won the previously Socred held Okanagan North riding in a 1984 by-election. Ran as a federal Liberal during the 1990’s.
3. Bill Barlee, small “l” liberal who won the previously Socred held Boundary Similkameen riding in a 1988 by-election. Also ran as a federal Liberal during the 1990’s.
4. Dr. Tom Perry, small “l” liberal who won the previously Socred held Vancouver Point Grey riding in a 1988 by-election.
5. Dave Zirnhelt, small “l” liberal who won the previously Socred held Cariboo riding in a 1988 by-election.
6. Jagrup Brar, who I would also classify as a small “l” liberal who won the previoulsy Liberal held Surrey Panorama Ridge riding in 2004.
During the aforesaid by-elections the incumbent government was trailing the opposition in public opinion.
Against that back-drop, McGinn, a former candidate for left-wing COPE, certainly has got her work cut out for her.
OTOH, a sitting BC government has NEVER gained an opposition seat during a by-election, AFAIK.
Much will also depend upon provincial polling trends on the date of the by-election and whether the Liberals are able to maintain their 10% (Mustel) – 14% (Ipsos) overall lead.
BJ, your analysis is correct, as usual.
One theory I have is that the NDP are just getting an “expendable” candidate (McGinn) for the by-election and will nominate somebody more “legitimate” for the general election if McGinn loses.
If this is true, it’s of course risky from an “electoral momentum” perspective if the NDP do lose the by-election.
Probably an easier explanation is that they couldn’t find anybody else with better credentials that would do it.