Kamloops Electoral Boundary Changes
Posted August 17, 2008 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Analysis
Comments (6)
About 10 days ago, BJ pointed out in a comment post that the riding boundary changes around Kamloops would result in a change of party support. We will look at both ridings.
In 2005, the riding boundaries split Kamloops roughly into west and east. The west side (including the suburban area of Westsyde North Kamloops and Brocklehurst) was part of Kamloops riding, while the east side was part of Kamloops-North Thompson. Both ridings elected BC Liberal members – Claude Richmond in Kamloops (won 48/42) and Kevin Krueger in Kamloops-North Thompson (won 48/40).
In 2009, the boundaries will split Kamloops into north and south – the southern part will be Kamloops-South Thompson, while the northern part will be Kamloops-North Thompson. The North Thompson riding is much larger as it extends all the way up Highway 5 – a very rural and sparsely area that features Clearwater as the most populous municipality.
A map of the two riding boundaries (Blue is 2005; Red is 2009, and the two Kamloops ridings have been shaded in red) is here – click for a zoomed map:
As the urban core of Kamloops is the more significant population center, we will look at the vote distribution in that area:
As the reader can see, Westsyde North Kamloops and Brocklehurst is extremely NDP-leaning which will sufficiently tilt the balance to making Kamloops-North Thompson a possible NDP seat in the upcoming election.
Kamloops-South Thompson sheds Westsyde North Kamloops and Brocklehurst, making it a BC Liberal safe seat.
My paper-napkin math has Kamloops-South Thompson at 53% BC Liberal, 36% NDP, while Kamloops-North Thompson is at 46% NDP, and 42% BC Liberal. This is consistent with BJ’s projections in his prior comment, and it should be pointed out that interpolating results from 2005 boundaries is not exact since the polling divisions in certain cases aren’t 100% clean.
Subsequent information (and a better map) can be found on the August 22, 2008 article.
Thanks for those colour-coded graphics of the constituencies!
That picture is definitely worth a thousand words. :)
Yeah, these maps are really fantastic. Thanks for the effort!
I should have made the shading transparent since not a lot of people are acutely aware of geography outside the Lower Mainland.
Just north of the Kamloops downtown is the Thompson River and there’s a park there called “Riverside Park”. There’s an ice cream shop on the corner across from the stadium which makes a fortune when it gets hot in Kamloops. It’s just a great place to chill out since there are plenty of tall trees there to provide shade.
I try my very best to explore the province in my car – it’s also fun.
I don’t disagree with your findings: just your geography.
The heavy NDP area on the map is actually North Kamloops and Brocklehurst, not Westsyde.
Both NK and Brock were in Kamloops ED in the last election: Westsyde was in K-NT. The dividing line is the CN railway.
As an aside: Westsyde was an odd fit in K-NT as it “jumped” across the river within the Kamloops city limits. Westsyde is a relatively narrow strip of land sandwiched between the North Thompson and the hills. To see the results of the Westsyde area (which are only partially shown on the map, you need to view the results of polls: 52, 54-68. My impression is that Westsyde is a close split, marginally going to Krueger.
See: Kamloops-North Thompson ED: http://elections.bc.ca/elections/sov05/kat.pdf
Kamloops ED: http://elections.bc.ca/elections/sov05/kam.pdf
As a double whammy to the Liberals in Kamloops NT: it loses the polls around the Rivershore Golf Course (poll 109) Monte Creek (part of #44)and Del Oro (# 10). This is a wealthy exurban area that voted massively Liberal (not shown on your map). This is where the ‘million dollar homes’ are located in Kamloops. These polls should further help the Libs in Kamloops South.
No wonder Krueger wanted Richmond to ‘retire.’
oops: Del Oro is poll #110.
fersure: Thank you for your comments.
I have corrected the main article, and I think I have sufficiently botched up my geography that this warrants a re-examination in a future post.