Fairview by-election timing

Posted August 31, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: By-Election

I had thought that the writ on the Vancouver-Fairview by-election will drop very soon, for a September 29 by-election.

This is obviously not happening, one reason because the BC Liberals still have to settle their nomination - whether Margaret MacDiarmid or Rick Peterson manages to get enough people to sit in the chairs for the nomination meeting. Either of those will be facing NDP candidate Jenn McGinn and other candidates (whom have little chance of winning the seat).

Complicating matters is the relative uncertainty of the Federal election (will it be called this week, to be held on the highly rumoured date of October 14, 2008) and also a conflict with the municipal election cycle (November 15, 2008).

There is risk concerning when to time the by-election, but if it was my call for the premier’s office, I would be doing it sooner than later. The risk of an adverse result would be more blunted with as much news as possible between the election result and the date of the general election - especially if the by-election happens before the November 4, 2008 US presidential election.

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Angus Reid reports NDP is ahead

Posted August 27, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Analysis, Polls

An Angus Reid poll (Detailed PDF archive), commissioned independently, 802 sampled from August 21 to 25 was released today. It indicated the voting intentions as follows:

NDP 41%
BC Liberal 38%
Green 14%

If this result is verified by another polling source (Mustel, Ipsos, etc.), then this election battle has just been blown wide open. The only possible “taint” to these results might be sample bias from the July NDP-commissioned Angus Reid survey showing BCL/NDP at 41/40, respectively - did Angus Reid use the same sample space?

Four years ago, an August 15, 2004 Mustel poll indicated that the BC Liberals had 40% support, the NDP had 42% and the Greens had 11%. Is history repeating itself?

When looking at the detailed survey results, there are some interesting points:

Gordon Campbell’s disapproval rating is 57% - compared to 43% (using the Mustel June 19 sample). Carole James’ is 38% - compared to 28% (again, against the Mustel poll). It is not known if these results are comparable to the Mustel poll, as slight variations on how the question is asked can influence results. The approval rating results also suggest that a quarter of the province have no idea who “Carole James” is if you asked a random person on the street. Jane Sterk isn’t even on the radar.

If you divide the approval rating by the people who would vote for the party, it suggests that 32% of the BC Liberal voters do not prefer Gordon Campbell’s performance, while 39% do not like Carole James’ performance. Just note this calculation is dividing one number with large error bars with another number with large error bars, so the result is something with a grossly higher margin of error and is most certainly not statistically valid with an 802 person sample (even assuming that the sample is random!).

Healthcare, something that hasn’t been on the media spotlight lately (compared to the Environment) is the top issue for 20% of the people. The economy is second at 14%, tax relief 9%, and leadership and the environment are tied at 8%.

Most people think Gordon Campbell has a vision for British Columbia than any other attribute (including “Cares about the Environment”). The Premier is also seen as being a strong and decisive leader (relative to the other attributes). A lot more people don’t know enough about Carole James to say much about her (roughly 40%), but for those that do, indicates she “Cares about the Environment” much more.

On the bottom part of the results, under “Is honest and trustworthy”, the Premier ranked last (18% said the statement applies, 60% said the statement does not apply), while Carole James was 45% applies, 16% does not. The other major contrast is that more people in this survey thought Carole James “Understands the problems of BC Residents” compared to the Premier.

Gordon Campbell ranked third with “Can manage the provincial economy effectively” (37% said applies, 45% said does not apply), while this was Carole James’ worst attribute (17% said applies, 33% said does not apply).

Finally, in terms of the regional split of voting, the NDP and BC Liberals are neck and neck in the Lower Mainland (40% and 39%, respectively), while the NDP are far ahead on Vancouver Island (49% vs. 33%). The NDP are slightly ahead in the Southern Interior (41% to 37%), while the BC Liberals are significantly ahead in the Northern Interior (47% to 33%).

This information is somewhat contradictory to the prevailing theory that the carbon tax did damage to the government since one would expect it would have the highest electoral impact in the Northern Interior.

The other thought that comes to mind is the federal impact on provincial election results - while political hacks are well acquainted with the difference between the BC Liberal Party and the Liberal Party of Canada, most ordinary people associate the word “Liberal” to mean the same party. While this association has been traditionally positive for the BC Liberal party, as the federal campaign heats up there might be collateral damage done to the BC Liberals in the process.

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Marc Emery running again

Posted August 27, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: By-Election, Other Parties

Thanks to BJ again for pointing out that Marc Emery, marijuana king of BC, is running for Vancouver-Fairview (and the Vancouver Mayor’s race).

His platform is surprisingly sharp, and overlaps the traditional left-wing/right-wing territory. An example is the following from his platform:

- BC Place would be demolished and sold to provide high-density housing. BC Place is in use usually fewer than 5 days a month.

- The Whitecaps Soccer Stadium on the railroad lands by Canada Place would get a green light to proceed. This is an outstanding private money project to put a multi-use sports stadium on the waterfront. Currently this project is not happening because of pressure for these same lands by the Port of Vancouver

…

- The cost of gasoline, exacerbated by the BC Liberal Carbon Tax and provincial gasoline taxes, rises while this resource is produced within Canada. You and I pay the same price for gasoline as if it were imported from the Middle East or Venezuela. Yet in Venezuela, the cost of gasoline is 16 cents Canadian a liter vs. $1.35 for a liter of the same gasoline in Vancouver. In both cases the gasoline is domestically produced, but the exorbitant cost to the citizen in Vancouver is due to rapacious taxation. Even Canadian gasoline sold in the United States is $1 a liter, and they import it, of course. Government is screwing us.

I notice he avoids using the catchphrases “affordable housing” and he discusses the price of gasoline in terms that are not associated with the traditional “the oil companies are raping us” terms.

The NDP would be wise to pay attention to the points of his platform - some of Marc Emery’s points makes a lot more sense than what the NDP are currently standing for.

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The cost of raising 10 dollars

Posted August 26, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: NDP

The NDP continue to send out some mail about raising $10 per person in the first 10 days of September. They are using gifttool.com, and their fee schedule is in their FAQ:

GiftTool will format your template page to identically match your website with all your navigation links. You pay a one-time setup fee of only $150 per service (receive a discount when you setup 2 or more services at once). Whenever your website changes in future, GiftTool will reflect these changes at no extra cost.

In addition to a small monthly fee, GiftTool charges a flat rate of $0.99 per transaction which is discounted for larger volumes. A credit card administrative fee of $0.24 will be applied to each credit cards transaction, plus the credit card fees charged by your internet merchant account gateway.

So to outsource the online donations, the NDP is paying approximately 2 dollars per transaction, plus the $150 setup fee.

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Wilf Hanni runs in Vancouver-Fairview

Posted August 26, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: By-Election, Other Parties

One more combatant to the Vancouver-Fairview by-election is BC Conservative party leader Wilf Hanni, who announced a few days ago that he is planning to run in the by-election.

This is a rather interesting development, as the BC Conservative party is to the BC Liberal party as the Green party is to the NDP - with slim chances of taking seats, but seen as “taking votes away” from their ideologically closest party.

This is not the first time that a minor party leader has run in a by-election - Adriane Carr, former leader of the BC Green Party, ran in the 2004 Surrey-Panorama Ridge by-election, gathering 8.4% of the vote, slightly worse than the 8.8% the Green candidate performed in 2001. Note that the 2001 election results are not directly compatible due to the nature of that election.

My initial ballpark estimate is if Wilf Hanni receives more than 3-4% of the vote, there is good reason for the BC Liberals to be concerned in the May 2009 election due to potential vote splitting. It is more unlikely for a BC Conservative voter to swing to the NDP than it is for a Green party voter to swing to the BC Liberals.

Federally, Vancouver-Fairview is not situated in traditionally Conservative territory - it is the southern chunk of Vancouver Centre, plus a bit of Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver Kingsway and a small slice of Vancouver East. All of the polls (except one just south of Vanier Park) did not have a majority (federal) Conservative vote in the 2006 federal election.

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Referendum Groups respond to Elections BC

Posted August 23, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Referendum

Public Eye has an article about a joint letter by the chief proponent and opponent of the BC-STV referendum about why they should be entitled to receive the full $500,000 to spend each.

It will be interesting to see if any other (credible) group will come out to try to claim some of the (essentially free) money being offered by the government.

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Vancouver-Fairview by-election candidates

Posted August 22, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: By-Election

Apparently the NDP are going to be announcing Jenn McGinn, a former COPE parks board candidate as their preferred candidate for Vancouver-Fairview. She placed 12th in the 2005 municipal election.

The BC Liberals have Margaret MacDiarmid, board member of the British Columbia Medical Association, apparently favoured by Colin Hansen. The BC Liberals also have running for the same nomination Rick Peterson, whom had a career as a hockey player in Europe, and now is investing in early stage companies.

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Clearing up the Kamloops redistribution

Posted August 22, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Analysis

It appears that I was somewhat wrong with my geography in my previous post about the Kamloops riding redistribution. Thank you to the commenter named “fersure” for pointing this out.

The NDP-strong area that was redistributed outside of Kamloops (2005) and into Kamloops-North Thompson (2009) is mainly in the neighbourhood of Brocklehurst, and not Westsyde as previously reported. The neighbourhoods of Kamloops can be found at the city’s website - they have a good online interface.

I have regenerated a map of the area, showing where the river boundaries are, the road network and also including the poll ID numbers. The map is supplied here:

Before anybody asks, the road that extends into the river is actually McArthur Island Park. I’m pretty sure it is not underwater, but my map data certainly appears to be.

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