Carole James and the Carbon Tax

Posted July 30, 2008 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: NDP, Polls Comments (1)

It has been a politically quiet week, punctuated by two major events – one being the Sea to Sky Highway being shut down for BC Day long weekend due to a rockslide. The second event is the NDP choosing one of the biggest weekends for people to get in their cars for a holiday to release a survey on the carbon tax.

Carole James and the NDP released some poll results, compiled by Angus Reid, showing public support (and lack thereof) for the carbon tax. Surveyed were 800 people between July 11 to July 13.

The snippet included with the NDP press release included:

{Carole James saying} “Gordon Campbell needs to listen to the public, scrap the gas tax and bring forward climate change solutions that work.”

Earlier today, Carole James spoke to the NDP caucus and supporters where she outlined the NDP’s plan to step up the campaign to axe the gas tax.

I find it odd that they are saying “Axe the gas tax” instead of “Axe the carbon tax”. Presumably this is because they don’t want to bleed their environmental supporters to the Green party.

Legally, there is a Motor Fuel Tax in addition to a Carbon Tax, both with separate rates. Most of the public would identify the Motor Fuel Tax as being the “gas tax”, although it would be interesting to survey people to see if they can distinguish between a “gas tax” and a “carbon tax”.

The survey had four questions.

Question 1: From what you have seen, heard or read about Premier Gordon Campbell’s carbon tax on fuel in British Columbia, do you support or oppose its implementation?

Roughly 60% of the GVRD (which presumably involves the FVRD) oppose the carbon tax, while 70% of the southern interior and 80% of the northern interior oppose it. The strong opposition was greater than the moderate opposition, while the moderate support was greater than the strong support. This and the geographical spread is not all that surprising.

The political ramification is pretty clear – the interior will likely lose BC Liberal support, especially for those voters that think the carbon tax is a sufficient “single issue” issue for them to sway their vote. Whether they’ll plug for the NDP is another question – probably the largest impact will be a loss of voters, or more third-party candidates receiving protest votes.

Question 2: With the government’s $100 climate change dividend, most British Columbians
come out ahead on the tax.

Less than 1/6th of the population supported this, especially in the northern interior.

This would suggest that the $100 climate action dividend will be long forgotten by May 2009. It also suggests that the more the government attempts to remind people that they gave a $100 cheque to offset the carbon tax, the more likely it is the public will backlash.

Question 3: It is unfair that major industrial polluters don’t have to pay the carbon tax, while ordinary consumers do.
Question 4: I trust the Government of B.C. when it says the carbon tax will be revenue neutral.

Both of these questions are horrible and the results are meaningless. Anytime you phrase a question starting with “I trust the Government…”, you know it is designed to get a desired result rather than to obtain public sentiment.

I am also wondering what other questions they asked in the survey that were cropped out – typically when such surveys are commissioned the first or last question they ask is “If there was an election held today, who would you vote for?”.

The NDP need to swing BC Liberal voters into their camp in order to have a viable shot of winning the upcoming election. The other way they have a shot is by demotivating BC Liberal supporters to the voting booth (i.e. not having 2005 BC Liberal supporters vote BC Liberal in 2009) – this is likely their strategy as I generally agree with the anonymous commenter on a previous post – there is economic inconsistency with the NDP’s message.