Short term Carbon Tax effects over
Posted July 23, 2008 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Economy
There is one powerful axiom of politics, for any democratic political jurisdiction:
Fuel taxes will never be reduced.
No matter how much people complain, gasoline taxes will never be a single issue for a voter to swing to one party over another. As long as this is the case, the axiom above will remain true. By extension, the carbon tax is now in place and will never be reduced - there will simply be too many entrenched interests in the status quo for any government to take down the new taxation wall that has been erected.
Now that the July 1, 2008 carbon tax has taken effect, the attention has shifted away to other topics, such as the Auditor General’s report on tree farm licenses.
Helping matters somewhat for the government is that the price of crude oil over the last week has dropped from $148 per barrel to $128, a full 14% drop. As prices at the pump adjust to reflect this lower pricing, the 2.4 cents seemingly becomes less significant as other issues take the limelight in the public consciousness.
So the short term political effect of the carbon tax is now over - this leaves the question of how much of a long term effect the tax will have on the upcoming campaign. Will the opposition be able to leverage it into a viable issue in May 2009?
Ultimately, the answer will not be whether the NDP or Green party can turn BC Liberals away from the polls - rather, it will be the crude oil futures that will do the job for them. If oil prices are higher in 9 months, the carbon tax will be on people’s minds. If not, then the price of energy will play second fiddle to other pressing matters of the day - possibly job security and the real estate marketplace?
From a political perspective, even today the NDP continues to pan the carbon tax with its “Axe the Tax” campaign in an obvious attempt to get on side with consumers for elimination of the tax.
“Will the opposition be able to leverage it into a viable issue in May 2009?”
That’s the big political problem that the NDP may have down the road. While they are portraying themselves as champions of the consumer with their fight for the elimination of the carbon tax…
… they have not said much about their own “Framework for Real Climate Action”.
More particularly at page 5 therein:
***”All pricing models include a cost to consumers.”***
http://bcndp.ca/upload/20080613125311_080613climatechangeFramework.pdf.pdf
On the one hand the NDP is attacking the “consumer” carbon tax…. but on the other hand the NDP has unequivocally stated that all of their climate proposals “include a cost to consumers”.
The NDP’s current actions could backfire if attention is focused upon their own climate action plan … and, more importantly, if they have to eventually “cost out” said climate action plan and it turns out the “cost to consumers” will be greater than the current carbon tax.
Just doesn’t make sense politically leading up to May, 2009.