June 19, 2008 - Mustel Poll

Posted June 26, 2008 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Polls

Mustel Group released the results of a 750 person poll (18% undecided) indicating a “shock result” - that fuel price is the number one priority for British Columbians (beyond healthcare, economy, environment, etc.).

The poll can be accessed here, or on Mustel’s website.

In addition to the issues poll, they also asked voter intentions. The results were the following:

BC Liberal 47%
NDP 37%
Green 14%

While the NDP has jumped a few percentage points over the previous quarter’s survey, it still is within the statistical error boundary of previous polling. While the BC Liberals should be concerned about the onslaught of the Carbon Tax assault (which is obviously reflective of today’s poll) the real question will be whether it will be the top issue in May of 2009.

As I have stated before, the Green party is likely to lose support on election day to the NDP, which puts the NDP at around 42%. The BC Liberals, based on these poll results, would not have to worry about losing a majority in the next election. However, if the NDP numbers start creeping up to the 40-42% range (in polls, not the actual election result), this is when the election becomes very competitive because the NDP have a more efficient vote distribution across the province - the BC Liberals’ popular support, where they have it, is heavily concentrated.

Recall that in the 2005 election, the BC Liberals had 45.8% provincial support, while the NDP had 41.5% provincial support. If the NDP received 2.5% more popular support province-wide, it would have been possible for them to form government.

I have updated the Poll Chart to reflect this new data.