Gregor Robertson to resign on July 15, 2008
Posted June 22, 2008 by Sacha Peter - Link
Category: Analysis, NDP
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MLA Gregor Robertson, and new Vision Vancouver candidate for mayor of Vancouver, announced that he will tender his resignation formally on July 15, 2008 in order to prepare for the Mayor’s race.
The non-resignation after he won the Vision Vancouver nomination was criticized by some in the media as being an amateur decision, but I don’t think the public would have been too concerned if he was or was not an MLA by the time of the November election. The only difficulty would have been if the BC Liberals decide to hold an autumn legislative session or not – Gregor not being present in Victoria may have presented an image problem.
The other discussion in the media revolved around how much notice Carole James received of Robertson’s announcement – apparently none. It was widely known that Robertson was not at all happy with the dysfunctional nature of the NDP caucus and this was probably his way of snubbing Carole James.
Finally, this means there will be a by-election for the seat of Vancouver Fairview before the 2009 election. Since the 2009 electoral distribution only takes effect on April 14, 2009, the by-election will be held with the original riding boundaries. Procedure (in this case, Section 35 of the Constitution Act) dictates that an election must be called within 6 months of the issue of writ for a by-election. However, assuming a July 15, 2008 resignation, the last possible date for a by-election could be in February, 2009.
The media commentary has revolved around the fact that the NDP has more to lose than the BC Liberals – if the NDP keep their seat, it’s status quo, while if the BC Liberals win the seat, the NDP clearly have lost any momentum in the central urban area.
Finally, the NDP and BC Liberals have to nominate candidates, which is always a tricky procedure on a short timeline. Both parties are likely to nominate female candidates – the NDP out of necessity to abide by an internal policy decision, while the BC Liberals are less constrained, but I would be surprised if they nominated a male.
While I generally agree with the analysis, I disagree with the downside for the BC Liberals – if the NDP manage to improve on their performance (46%) from last year’s election, then it could telegraph a negative signal for the BC Liberals in the swing urban seats – especially around the Burnaby-Coquitlam corridor.