Vancouver-Fraserview

Posted June 28, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Analysis

The question for Wally Oppal, however, is whether he can get re-elected in his riding of Vancouver-Fraserview. It is likely that he would have not made his decision if he thought he would lose the 2009 election. The 2009 boundaries were adjusted slightly - note on the following map, the green area is the 2005 boundaries for Vancouver-Fraserview, and the yellow area is the boundary for Vancouver-Kingsway (NDP MLA Adrian Dix).

Observe that Vancouver-Fraserview loses 58 acres to Vancouver-Kensington, while receives 110 acres from Vancouver-Kingsway. When we overlay the polling split between the two ridings, we have the following result:

Observe that the polls from Vancouver-Kingsway overlap with the 2009 electoral boundaries. This means that one has to interpolate results from these polls using various sophisticated methods (which will inevitably bore a lot of the potential audience).

Do the math, and discover that Vancouver-Fraserview loses 269 BC Liberal voters, and 164 NDP voters, while it gains approximately 429 BC Liberal voters and 375 NDP voters. The net change for the 2009 redistribution means a gain of 160 BC Liberal voters and 211 NDP voters, a mild loss of support for Oppal.

Oppal won in 2005 with 9895 votes to the NDP candidate’s (Ravinder Gill) 8783 votes, so this likely will not compromise Oppal’s election changes too much. However, Vancouver-Fraserview has changed significantly in the past four years and being able to project the changes in how the area has changed will be crucial in projecting an election result in this riding. It is by no means a slam dunk riding for the BC Liberals, although Oppal’s statue in the media certainly favours him.

No Comment Yet

Gotta love Wally Oppal

Posted June 28, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: BC Liberals

The man is a quote machine. Oppal will be running again in 2009 because:

I’m sticking around because I’m basically unemployable.

Just like a typical politician, lying again!

No Comment Yet

Poll - Angus Reid on Carbon Taxes

Posted June 27, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

Angus Reid released a poll ended June 26, of 800 BC residents, asking questions concerning the BC Carbon tax. You can read it locally, or on Angus Reid’s website.

The first two pages of the report is a good analysis of the numbers, so I would encourage readers to do so.

What is most interesting is that people that make more than $100,000 are by far and away the largest supporters (72%) of “Putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions is a good idea.”, while least supportive (76%) of “The BC government should target major industrial producers such as the gas, oil, cement, and aluminum industries, instead of imposing a carbon tax.”

Still, the percentages are tight enough such that I would not be making sweeping conclusions out of this survey.

Finally, 60% of BC is convinced global warming is occurring, 32% is “may be occurring, but not fully convinced” and 6% is not happening at all. The 60% magnitude is very likely why this is such a high profile issue in the first place.

No Comment Yet

June 19, 2008 - Mustel Poll

Posted June 26, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

Mustel Group released the results of a 750 person poll (18% undecided) indicating a “shock result” - that fuel price is the number one priority for British Columbians (beyond healthcare, economy, environment, etc.).

The poll can be accessed here, or on Mustel’s website.

In addition to the issues poll, they also asked voter intentions. The results were the following:

BC Liberal 47%
NDP 37%
Green 14%

While the NDP has jumped a few percentage points over the previous quarter’s survey, it still is within the statistical error boundary of previous polling. While the BC Liberals should be concerned about the onslaught of the Carbon Tax assault (which is obviously reflective of today’s poll) the real question will be whether it will be the top issue in May of 2009.

As I have stated before, the Green party is likely to lose support on election day to the NDP, which puts the NDP at around 42%. The BC Liberals, based on these poll results, would not have to worry about losing a majority in the next election. However, if the NDP numbers start creeping up to the 40-42% range (in polls, not the actual election result), this is when the election becomes very competitive because the NDP have a more efficient vote distribution across the province - the BC Liberals’ popular support, where they have it, is heavily concentrated.

Recall that in the 2005 election, the BC Liberals had 45.8% provincial support, while the NDP had 41.5% provincial support. If the NDP received 2.5% more popular support province-wide, it would have been possible for them to form government.

I have updated the Poll Chart to reflect this new data.

No Comment Yet

Pre-Election cabinet shuffle

Posted June 23, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: News

The BC Government announced their new cabinet today, which is summed up in this press release.

Most notable is that Colin Hansen is once again the Minister of Finance - he served for a year after Gary Collins resigned in 2004. Colin Hansen has always been a steady and competent performer in cabinet and a relatively safe choice for Gordon Campbell.

Other significant shifts include Stan Hagen moving from Tourism to Agriculture and Lands, which might be politically motivated - Hagen’s riding of Comox Valley (nearly untouched after the 2009 boundary changes) is vulnerable.

Finally, East Kootenay MLA Bill Bennett, who has sat as a backbencher after his delightfully blunt email to a constituent, has been promoted again to the Tourism ministry. East Kootenay is going to become Kootenay East after the 2009 redistribution and the change to the electoral boundary is minor - click the graphic below for an enhanced view - the red outline and the coloured areas are the 2005 boundaries, while the 2009 boundaries are defined in thick black lines. The two areas in question are sparsely populated, but both have slightly trended BC Liberal.

Bill Bennett is going to face a challenge in the 2009 election.

No Comment Yet

Gregor Robertson to resign on July 15, 2008

Posted June 22, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Analysis, NDP

MLA Gregor Robertson, and new Vision Vancouver candidate for mayor of Vancouver, announced that he will tender his resignation formally on July 15, 2008 in order to prepare for the Mayor’s race.

The non-resignation after he won the Vision Vancouver nomination was criticized by some in the media as being an amateur decision, but I don’t think the public would have been too concerned if he was or was not an MLA by the time of the November election. The only difficulty would have been if the BC Liberals decide to hold an autumn legislative session or not - Gregor not being present in Victoria may have presented an image problem.

The other discussion in the media revolved around how much notice Carole James received of Robertson’s announcement - apparently none. It was widely known that Robertson was not at all happy with the dysfunctional nature of the NDP caucus and this was probably his way of snubbing Carole James.

Finally, this means there will be a by-election for the seat of Vancouver Fairview before the 2009 election. Since the 2009 electoral distribution only takes effect on April 14, 2009, the by-election will be held with the original riding boundaries. Procedure (in this case, Section 35 of the Constitution Act) dictates that an election must be called within 6 months of the issue of writ for a by-election. However, assuming a July 15, 2008 resignation, the last possible date for a by-election could be in February, 2009.

The media commentary has revolved around the fact that the NDP has more to lose than the BC Liberals - if the NDP keep their seat, it’s status quo, while if the BC Liberals win the seat, the NDP clearly have lost any momentum in the central urban area.

Finally, the NDP and BC Liberals have to nominate candidates, which is always a tricky procedure on a short timeline. Both parties are likely to nominate female candidates - the NDP out of necessity to abide by an internal policy decision, while the BC Liberals are less constrained, but I would be surprised if they nominated a male.

While I generally agree with the analysis, I disagree with the downside for the BC Liberals - if the NDP manage to improve on their performance (46%) from last year’s election, then it could telegraph a negative signal for the BC Liberals in the swing urban seats - especially around the Burnaby-Coquitlam corridor.

No Comment Yet

MLA Rick Thorpe not running in 2009

Posted June 22, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: BC Liberals

Rick Thorpe is the MLA for Okanagan-Westside and also the Minister for Small Business and Revenue. He announced last Friday (June 20, 2008) that he will not be running again in 2009, citing “life reasons”.

There seems to be a lot of credibility with this explanation given Thorpe’s circumstances compared to when other ministers announce the same. Probably the best contrary example was when Christy Clark decided not to run again in 2005 when she said “I want to be with my newborn baby” and then 11 months later decided to run for the NPA Mayor’s nomination. The suspected reason was that she was rather disgusted with her last assignment, the Ministry of Children and Families, which is apparently the location where you send cabinet-level MLAs to depress them for life.

Thrope, on the other hand, had a heart attack and then subsequently went through some life transformations - he lost a ton of weight compared to when he was first elected in 1996. He also fainted in the BC Legislature last February due to exhaustion. He’s 63 years old and likely will find life a lot more enjoyable outside the government.

This is eight BC Liberal MLAs that will no longer be running in the 2009 election.

Thorpe’s riding, Okanagan-Westside is a safe BC Liberal riding; he won the last election 54% to 31% for his NDP rival. The 2009 redistribution adds a slice of Kelowna into the newly formed Westside-Kelowna riding.

No Comment Yet

June 10, 2008, Ipsos-Reid Poll

Posted June 18, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Polls

An 800-person Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between June 5 to June 10 revealed the following voter preferences:

BC Liberal 47%
BC NDP 33%
BC Green 16%

Nothing has changed since the last poll. It is likely the public doesn’t have the election on their radar screens (yet) although things will likely change around September.

The BC Liberals can be comfortable with this poll, although it is likely that the truer figures would be closer to 47% / 40% when you factor in about 6% of Greens bleeding away to the NDP.

Source: Jonathan Fowlie, Vancouver Sun, June 17, 2008

Thank you to BJ for bringing this to my attention in a prior post.

No Comment Yet