Watch out for the Electoral Boundaries Commission

Posted January 30, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Analysis, News

The BC Electoral Boundaries Commission has just wrapped its second round of consultations, and has to issue its final report to the BC Legislature by February 15, 2008. The suggestions they recommend will be the matter of some debate and depending on how drastically they redesign the boundaries, will have an impact on the election.

It is likely that if the rural-urban split is not addressed in the final report that the legislature will vote it down.

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Michael Smyth on the Premiers and Climate Change

Posted January 29, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Environment

This one was is paraphrased roughly from the Vancouver Province:

By standing up for the oil industry, Mr. Stelmach seizes a critical “wedge issue” prior to the election while appealing to Albertans’ well-honed sense of western alienation when it comes to their oil reserves. The other premiers understand that kind of hardball politics. Ontario Premier McGuinty wants to be seen as a leader on climate change, but he has a huge industrial economic base that is on its knees. Every politician wants to look like they are saving the planet, but does not want to stick their own necks out while they do it. Premier Campbell is sitting in the cat-bird seat: he has promised to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 33 per cent by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2050, but he does not have an auto industry to worry about. Going green is easier for Campbell and it has transformed him into a national leader on the issue, to the frustration of his domestic political enemies such as NDP Leader Carole James. Climate change is a losing political issue for a guy like Stelmach. It’s a winner for a guy like Campbell. And he’s milking it for all it’s worth.

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The campaign starts on February 12, 2008

Posted January 29, 2008 by Sacha Peter
Category: Analysis

Welcome to BC Election 2009, a resource for the upcoming provincial election to be held on May 12, 2009. The intention of this site is to provide analysis concerning the projected outcome of the election.

Since legislation concerning fixed election dates was enacted, this has the effect of prolonging campaign periods far beyond what was experienced in the past. You can see this in the US election cycle - and the same will happen in BC, Ontario and Canada now that all three have introduced fixed election periods.

If past history was any indication, the 2009 session of the legislature will be strictly for pre-election antics from both the government and the opposition. The government will try to enact some feel-good legislation, while the opposition will try to point out that the government is electioneering. This makes the 2008 session much more critical for both parties as it will likely consist of legitimate policies that are not so politically targeted (such as the rumoured carbon tax legislation) in addition to the feel-good legislation.

Thus, the first firing shot in the campaign will be in the throne speech, scheduled for February 12, 2008.

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